Friday, December 19, 2008

Are stars a good predictor?

The question has been debated endlessly on message boards for years now, "How do recruiting rankings translate into college performance?"


My contention is that for the most part, Rivals.com does a pretty good job with their evaluations, but the will inevitably miss on a few guys. It's nearly impossible to not miss based on their being hundreds of thousands of high school football players out there.


Here's a portion of the explanation from Rivals.com's own site regarding how Rivals ranks players.

Players are also ranked on their quality with a star ranking. A five-star prospect is considered to be one of the nation's top 25-30 players, four star is a top 250-300 or so player, three-stars is a top 750 level player, two stars means the player is a mid-major prospect and one star means the player is not ranked.


The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1 - 4.9.

  • 6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect
  • 6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
  • 5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
  • 5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player
  • 4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about


    With those guidelines in mind, let's take a look at the 2008 All-American and All-Big 12 teams with kudos and thanks to HuskersIllustrated.com's Mike Matya who compiled the list and the stars. I added the Rivals rankings.


    First-team All-Americans [AP, ESPN and Rivals]







































    QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)3 star 5.7 rating
    RB Shonn Greene (Iowa)2 star 5.0 rating
    RB Javon Ringer (Michigan State)3 star 5.7 rating
    RB Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State)3 star 5.6 rating
    WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)4 star 5.8 rating
    WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)4 star 6.0 rating
    OT Andre Smith (Alabama)5 star 6.1 rating
    OT Michael Oher (Ole Miss)4 star 6.0 rating
    OG Duke Robinson (Oklahoma)4 star 5.8 rating
    OG Herman Johnson (LSU)4 star 6.0 rating
    OG Seth Olsen (Iowa)3 star 5.5 rating
    C Antoine Caldwell (Alabama)3 star 5.5 rating
    C Alex Mack (California)2 star 5.3 rating
    TE Chase Coffman (Missouri)3 star 5.6 rating
    TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)4 star 6.0 rating
    AP Jeremy Maclin (Missouri)4 star 5.8 rating
    AP Percy Harvin (Florida)5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 WR; No. 1 in Rivals100)
    DE Aaron Maybin (Penn State)4 star 5.8 rating
    DE Brian Orakpo (Texas)4 star 5.8 rating
    DE Jerry Hughes (TCU)2 star 5.3 rating
    DT Terrence Cody (Alabama)3 star not rated
    DT Peria Jerry (Ole Miss)3 star 5.5 rating
    DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 DT; No. 4 in Rivals100)
    LB James Laurinaitis (Ohio State)3 star 5.5 rating
    LB Rey Maualuga (USC)5 star 6.1 rating
    LB Brandon Spikes (Florida)5 star 6.1 rating (No 2 OLB; No. 13 in Rivals100)
    LB Mark Herzlich (Boston College)3 star 5.6 rating
    CB Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest)3 star 5.5 rating
    CB Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State)3 star 5.5 rating
    CB D.J. Moore (Vanderbilt)3 star 5.5 rating
    S Taylor Mays (USC)5 star 6.1 rating (No 2 ATH; No. 16 in Rivals100)
    S Eric Berry (Tennessee)5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 CB; No. 3 in Rivals100)
    S Rashad Johnson (Alabama)unranked walkon not rated
    K Louie Sakoda (Utah)2 star not rated
    P Kevin Huber (Cincinnati)unranked walkon not rated
    PR Brandon James (Florida)3 star 5.5 rating
    KR Mardy Gilyard (Cincinnati)2 star 4.9 rating









    Totals:
    RankingCountPercentage
    6.1718.9%
    6.0-5.8924.3%
    5.7-5.51335.1%
    5.4-5.038.1%
    4.912.7%
    unranked410.8%


    First-team All-Big 12 [AP, ESPN and Big 12 coaches]











































    QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    QB Colt McCoy, Texas3 star 5.6 rating
    RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State3 star 5.6 rating
    RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma4 star 6.0 rating
    FB Matt Clapp, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    WR Michael Crabtree Texas Tech4 star 5.8 rating
    WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State4 star 6.0 rating
    AP Jeremy Maclin, Missouri4 star 5.8 rating
    TE Chase Coffman, Missouri3 star 5.6 rating
    TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma4 star 6.0 rating
    OG Duke Robinson, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    OL Jason Smith, Baylor2 star 5.0 rating
    OL Rylan Reed, Texas Techunrated walkon
    OL Russell Okung, Oklahoma State3 star 5.6 rating
    OL Phil Loadholt, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    OL Trent Williams, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    OL Adam Ulatoski, Texas3 star 5.7 rating
    C Jon Cooper, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    DL Brian Orakpo, Texas4 star 5.8 rating
    DL Brandon Williams, Texas Tech2 star 5.4 rating
    DL Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska4 star 5.6 rating
    DL Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    DL Ziggy Hood, Missouriunrated walkon
    DL Gerald McCoy5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 DT; No. 4 in Rivals100)
    DL Roy Miller, Texas4 star 6.0 rating
    LB Joe Pawelek, Baylor2 star 5.2 rating
    LB Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri2 star 5.2 rating
    LB Travis Lewis, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    LB James Holt, Kansas2 star 5.2 rating
    LB Sergio Kindle, Texas5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 ILB; No. 5 in Rivals100)
    DB Darcel McBath, Texas Tech3 star 5.6 rating
    DB Darrell Stuckey, Kansas3 star 5.5 rating
    DB Lendy Holmes, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    DB Daniel Charbonnet, Texas Tech3 star 5.3 rating
    DB Jordan Lake, Baylor2 star 5.1 rating
    DB William Moore, Missouri3 star 5.5 rating
    DB Nic Harris, Oklahoma4 star 5.9 rating
    K Jeff Wolfert, Missouriunrated walkon
    P Justin Brantley, Texas A&M 2 star 5.3 rating
    KR Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State4 star 5.9 rating
    PR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State4 star 6.0 rating










    Totals:
    RankingCountPercentage
    6.124.9%
    6.0-5.81536.6%
    5.7-5.51331.7%
    5.4-5.0819.5%
    4.900%
    unranked37.3%

    What does all of this mean for Nebraska's 2009 recruiting class? Who knows, but it appears that there are many 3 and 4 stars in the 5.56.0 rating groups who make all-American and all-Conference teams. There are definitely some 'diamonds in the rough' who could easily step up their game and earn accolades.


    Here are the star rankings and Rivals ratings of the committed class thus far.
























    QB Cody Green4 stars 5.8 rating
    LB Chris Williams4 stars 5.8 rating
    DB Dijon Washington4 stars 5.8 rating
    RB Rex Burkhead4 stars 5.8 rating
    OL Jeremiah Sirles3 stars 5.7 rating
    LB Earnest Norman3 stars 5.7 rating
    DB Andrew Green3 stars 5.7 rating
    DB DeAndre Byrd3 stars 5.6 rating
    TE J.T. Kerr3 stars 5.6 rating
    WR Brandon Kinnie3 stars 5.6 rating
    DT Thaddeus Randle3 stars 5.6 rating
    OL Nick Ash3 stars 5.6 rating
    OL Jesse Coffey3 stars 5.6 rating
    DE Kevin Young3 stars 5.6 rating
    LB Shawn Bodtmann3 stars 5.6 rating
    DB Lazarri Middleton3 stars 5.6 rating
    ATH Taylor Martinez3 stars 5.6 rating
    DB Dejon Gomes3 stars 5.6 rating
    OL Brent Qvale3 stars 5.5 rating
    DT Cole Pensick3 stars 5.5 rating
    RB Dontrayevous Robinson3 stars 5.5 rating
    RB C.J. Zimmerer2 stars 5.4 rating










    Totals:
    RankingCountPercentage
    6.100%
    6.0-5.8418.2%
    5.7-5.51777.3%
    5.4-5.014.5%
    4.900%
    unranked00%

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to alland Go Big Red in Jacksonville!!

    Friday, December 5, 2008

    SP Times: Jarvis Giles still set to announce Tuesday

    Giles to make announcement Tuesday
    from Blog: High School Sports
    Tampabay.com - St. Petersburg Times
    by Times Editor


    Gaither running back Jarvis Giles told the Times this afternoon he will make his college announcement Tuesday at noon.

    Giles -- who committed to Tennessee in the summer but decommitted when the Vols announced coach Phil Fulmer was not returning -- has his schools narrowed down to South Carolina, Nebraska and Tennessee.

    South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier visited Gaither during school Thursday to visit Giles and speak to senior tight end Justin Lattimore. Spurrier is expected to make an in-home visit with Giles Thursday evening.

    On Friday, Tennessee will make its final in-person pitch to their former committment with an apparent Rocky Top hard-court press. Giles said new head coach Lane Kiffin, along with new assistant coach David Reaves -- who recruited Giles for the Gamecocks -- and Stan Drayton, a Tampa native and apparent holdover from Fulmer's staff who recruited Giles for the Vols, will all visit.

    On Sunday, Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini is expected to drop by. Giles just returned from an official visit to Nebraska over the weekend.

    Then it's decision time for Giles.

    -- EDUARDO A. ENCINA

    Wednesday, December 3, 2008

    Pelini's staff turning it up in high schools

    With the regular season completed and a Gator Bowl berth on the near horizon, NU's coaching staff has been hitting the road for in-home and in-school visits. All indications are that they are getting there early and making a strong impression.

    On Day One, they were in the homes of ...

    Committed linebacker Chris Williams (6-1/220/4-stars) of Abilene (Texas)
    "Yes, coach (Barney) Cotton came to our house and it went real good. We was just hung out and talked a little about football and everything. He was just getting to know my mom better and giving her some facts about Lincoln because that's where I'm going to be living."

    Defensive tackle Latu Heimuli (6-3/296/4-stars) of Salt Lake City (Utah) was the first player that head coach Bo Pelini visited.
    "It was really good," Heimuli's father said. "He was just pointing out the needs of the football team and the academic stuff – how they check on all the freshman to make sure they're off to a good start, and make sure everybody is going class… so it was really good – as far as my point of view.

    Running backs coach Tim Beck was in the Tampa Bay area visiting Tampa Plant high school's Orson Charles' (6-3/230/4-stars) mother.
    “Yes sir, a couple schools have been here. The first one to talk to my mom (on Monday) was coach Tim Beck. I didn’t get to talk to him too much, but my mom said it went good. I also saw Purdue at my practice.”

    On the other coast in California were defensive coordinator Carl Pelini and defensive backs coach Marvin Sanders. They were in the school of Long Beach Poly DB Lazarri Middleton (6-1/190/unrated).
    “Nebraska and SMU are my leaders, and I’m really interested in Nebraska right now. After I come back from SMU, in some short time frame I’ll make my decision. Yes, I could easily choose Nebraska before I visit them.”

    Middleton only sports offers from SMU and Idaho State along with NU at this point, however schools like Kansas State, UCLA, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are actively recruiting him and likely to offer. NU seems to have beaten everyone to the punch on this one!

    Carl Pelini also visited linebacker Eric Martin (6-2/215/4-stars) of Moreno Valley (Calif.). He's taking his SAT this weekend so he can begin official visits after that.
    "Hopefully, Nebraska will be my first one, and then Arizona, and maybe Washington. It's all about what I could do my first year there - if I'd have to red shirt or if I'd have a chance to play early. I'm looking to see how many of their linebackers are seniors. I'd like the chance to play my freshman year. That would be nice."

    Defensive end Sean Stanley (6-2/250/4-stars) of Gaithersburg (Md.) who is committed to Penn State but visited Lincoln recently is also on the list. Coach John Papuchis is scheduled to visit him Thursday and head coach Pelini is planning to visit next Wednesday. That Pelini visit could be canceled if Stanley likes what he sees on his official visit to Penn State this weekend.
    "It just depends on my visit," Stanley said. "If I go and I'm sure Penn State is the right choice, then I'm going to Penn State. If there is any doubt, I'll tell coach Pelini to come out and maybe take another trip back to each school."

    There are others in process which have not been reported yet. Suffice it to say that the NU staff is not only hitting the trail hard, but they are also turning over rocks to find top prospects (see Middleton) that other schools have yet to approach.

    This class is shaping up to be very strong!

    Thursday, October 30, 2008

    Here's to the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays

    American League Champions!

    No, that team in the World Series was not the same team we saw from May through the ALCS. I leave the Major League season frustrated, disappointed and totally 100% PROUD of my team!

    Here's what they're saying...
    St. Pete Times:
    Rays miracle season over, but its effects will last - http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/article881466.ece#comments

    World Series: Remember the Tampa Bay Rays' good times - http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/article881459.ece

    Rays have less time to prepare for next season after World Series run - http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/article881410.ece

    Tampa Tribune:
    Dream Ends, But It Was a Summer to Remember - http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/oct/30/na-bell-tolls-for-rays-bell-tolls-for-rays/

    Maddon Never Wavered - http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/oct/29/300044/w1-maddon-never-wavered/sports-rays/

    Rays Come Up Short On Game's Biggest Stage - http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/oct/30/300033/w1-rays-come-up-short-on-games-biggest-stage/sports-rays/

    Monday, October 20, 2008

    It's cold in the deep, deep south

    Adolf Hitler and Ted Bundy are looking for winter coats and ice skates! Hell has officially frozen over!

    As improbable… As unbelievable… As preposterous as it sounds, the Tampa Bay Rays (yes THOSE Rays!) are going to the World Series!

    In a sign of what they’ve become to the Tampa Bay Area, during the Bucs Sunday night game in Raymond James Stadium against Seattle a Warrick Dunn 1-yard run was greeted by the fans in the stadium with wild cheers.

    Was it because Dunn scored a TD or gained a first down? Nope! It was because fans had been made aware (via the scoreboard, their blackberries, Rays’ radio broadcasts and their in-stands neighbors) that the Rays had just tied the game on Carlos Pena’s first-to-home dash in the fifth inning. Chants of “Let’s Go Rays” could be heard on the Buc’s radio broadcast!

    For the first ten years of their existence the Rays were an exercise in futility. They finished in last place nine (!) times in those ten years – including 2006 and 2007 – and never finished higher than fourth.

    Their team record for wins coming into this season was 70 – SEVENTY(!) – in 2004.

    Lofty goals for this season among long-time fans included finishing at or above .500 and finishing third in the AL East.

    Now they’ve gone from worst to first – Wild Card qualifier, AL East Champs, ALDS winners and now American League Champions!



    And how sweet was it that Rocco Baldelli – after all that he’s been through physically and emotionally the last few years – was the guy who delivered the game winning RBI??


    The last team to go from worst record in MLB to the World Series? The 1991 Atlanta Braves. Sure, those Braves lost the Series – possibly the best World Series in history – to the (also worst-to-first) Minnesota Twins. However, that year jump-started a run of 14 straight playoff appearances for the Braves.

    Can the Rays follow that Braves example? In today’s AL East, it will be very difficult. The Yankees and Red Sox spend money like the federal government and the Blue Jays are not far behind.

    Still, there are similarities to those early-90’s Atlanta teams that are unmistakable. It starts with pitching.

    Atlanta had Glavine, Smoltz and Avery who were home-grown. Tampa Bay has Shields, Sonnanstine and Price.

    Atlanta traded for Maddux – Tampa Bay traded for Kazmir and Garza.
    Neither team has a bullpen that they can count on in the playoffs, especially at the closer spot. Atlanta struggled through guys like Alejandro Pena, Mark Wohlers and John Rocker. The Rays have had Troy Percival (past his prime) and Dan Wheeler.

    On the bench, the Braves had (have) Bobby Cox who had been in the game for decades and had finally found the right place for his managerial style. The Rays have Joe Maddon who spent decades with the Angels organization before finally getting his shot to manage – he hasn’t disappointed.

    There are a lot of similarities.

    The Rays accomplished this championship with the second-lowest payroll in MLB - $44 million.

    The good news for Rays’ fans is that many of the young stars on this team are locked up for a few years already. Here’s a great article from MLB.com’s Jim Molony regarding how the team was built. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081006&content_id=3600016&vkey=news_tb&fext=.jsp&c_id=tb&partnerId=rss_tb

    Rays players and the year their contract ends (includes club option years)





    200920102011201220142016
    BradfordPenaWheelerKazmirShieldsLongoria
    FloydCrawfordBaldelliPrice
    MillerIwamura
    Niemann

    There are some players – such as Garza, Navarro, Upton, Jackson, Howell, Aybar, Sonnanstine, and Riggans – whose contracts are up after this year. They won’t be able to sign them all, but those first three are critical to maintaining this team.

    Navi handles this staff very well and has finally started to produce offensively like the Yankees (who drafted him) and the Dodgers (who groomed him) thought he would. He’s critical to keep.

    Upton is one of the brightest young stars in the game, and has hit seven home runs this post-season after struggling through injury all season. He’s still learning to play center field after being drafted as a shortstop, yet when you watch him glide around the outfield you see multiple Gold Gloves in his future. He’s critical to keep.

    Garza is only the ALCS MVP. He’s been great ever since he had that dust-up with Navi in Texas mid-summer.



    Before the all-star game, Garza was 7-5 with a 3.96 ERA. After the mid-summer classic, he went 4-4 but his ERA was only 3.39 in the second half.

    Most importantly last night – in the biggest game of his young career – Garza stepped up and knocked it out of the park! Pitching into the 8th and allowing only

    He’s critical to maintain the rotation with Shields, Kazmir and Price.
    So the payroll will rise, but that’s to be expected. How much it rises is the key, but I’d expect closer to $64M than $44M next season.

    Speaking of David Price, all the rookie did was step into the biggest game in team history in the biggest situation of the post-season thus far and deliver the biggest win in team history.



    He enters with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth and strikes out the Sox hottest clutch hitter, J.D. Drew. Then when it made the most sense to pull the rookie after that emotional out, Maddon sends him out there and he walks the first guy to bring the tying run to the plate with nobody out. What does the rookie do? He strikes out the next two guys – including Boston captain Jason Varitek – and gets the game-ender on a ground ball to 2B.

    "I knew that David had a lot of emotional bullets left," Maddon said. "[I] talked to him before the game, and he's not impacted by the situation. So there's Drew [at the plate] -- the right guy, I thought, was David Price."

    Price has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and may supplant Shields in that spot as early as next Spring.

    The future is certainly bright in St. Petersburg; however it’s the present that we’re concerned with right now. It’s poetic, don’t you think Tampa Bay fans, that the Rays will have to beat a Philadelphia team to win the title?
    The Bucs had to go through the Eagles and they did so by closing down Veteran’s Stadium in the NFC title game.

    The Lightning had to go through the Flyers in the second round of the NHL playoffs on their way to the Stanley Cup in 2005.

    Now the Rays have to take out the Phillies to win the World Series.

    Here’s to hoping that the pattern continues! Go Rays!

    Saturday, October 11, 2008

    Moral victories are for losers

    "Almost" only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, but this time "almost" feels a little bit different. It feels like the 2008 Huskers could actually get one of those "signature wins" that everyone talks about. The disappointing thing to me is that they had Tech right where they wanted them and they couldn't quite close the deal. It was encouraging and heartbreaking at the same time.

    Here are my thoughts...

    Positives:
    • Encouraging to me that Shawn Watson ran the ball with both Marlon Lucky and Roy Helu - and he stuck with it! Sure it was barely over 100 yards, but it was effective for only the second time this year (NM State).
    • I thought that Lucky played an excellent game in all facets. He ran well between the tackles, was patient, caught the ball well (as usual) and picked up a number of blitzing 'backers.
    • Encouraging also that NU actually stopped Tech twice and controlled the time of possession by better than 2-to-1.
    • Watson had a great game plan that put NU in position to win the game.
    • Even better effort in OT on the blocked FG. I really thought they'd win it after that!
    • Joe Ganz threw the ball away well all game long, and I think he was trying to throw that last one away in OT but was hit at the same time and the ball got away from him.

    Negatives

    • Discouraging to me that NU is still making the stupid mental errors (false starts and personal fouls) that are costing them games.
    • I'm not sure what's up with Ndamukong Suh, but he needs to cut out the damned personal fouls. This is now two games he's potentially cost us with that crap! First Va. Tech and now T. Tech. He draws the personal foul and then is standing on the sideline when they score because Pelini pulls him after the penalty. Shukree Barfield came in and got driven off the ball like he was a high school freshman. He was on his back in the end zone six freaking yards from the line of scrimmage!
    • What the hell was Armando Murillo doing on that 4th and 4 when Michael Crabtree went deep? How do you let a guy who was a Heisman finalist as a freshman get behind you that far!?! The worst part about that play to me - the post game interview on FSN with Graham Harrell where he said that the center wasn't even supposed to snap the ball but didn't get the memo evidently. They were just going to try and draw NU off and then punt.

    It was a sad loss, but NU competed with and really handed it to the #7 (probably #4 or 5 next week) team in the country on their own field. They should have won the game.

    Game balls from me go to Joe Ganz, Todd Peterson, Mike McNeill, Meno Holt, Niles Paul, Matt Holt, Larry Asante and Ty Steinkuhler.

    How about Matt Holt stepping in as a true freshmen (a walk-on no less!) when Cody Glenn and Phil Dillard are both hurt and having 8 tackles (7 solo)? NU might have found a true "diamond in the rough".

    Aside from his stupid personal foul, I thought Suh played very well in the middle against that huge OL of Tech's.

    Jacob Hickman certainly redeemed himself after a poor performance against Missouri also.

    All in all, I'll take it but I'm disappointed that they lost. The game was theirs for the taking and they blew it when it counted the most. As the title says, moral victories are for losers and the bottom line is that NU is now 3-3 when they could very well be 5-1 with some better play between the ears.

    Monday, September 29, 2008

    Virginia Tech thoughts...

    I will preface this by saying that I haven't watched the film yet. I'm burning the DVD as I type and will watch it later today/tonight.



    That said, I thought that the effort was good Saturday night but the execution and (especially) the play-calling on offense left a LOT to be desired. I'm of the opinion right now that the game was over early on when Roy Helu ran for 4 yards on first down, 4 yards on second down and then Watson threw a pass on 3rd and 2!!?? Ganz misfired and we had to punt - it was blocked for a safety and the ball was rolling downhill for the wrong team.



    Larry Asante played poorly.



    Joe Ganz played poorly.



    The offensive line - especially Mike Huff and Mike Smith - played poorly.



    The WR weren't able to get open much, but that was expected given Va Tech's corners.



    Macho Harris is VERY, VERY good and will be a star on Sundays.



    Tyrod Taylor's athleticism was not on display for the most part, but then when you're running for 7 and 8 yards a pop between the tackles there's no reason to take a chance getting your QB hurt. Taylor did miss on a couple of throws that helped NU hold the Hokies to FG where they could have had TDs.



    In all, the team played hard and played to the final gun. That's something that I'm not sure we saw last year, so that's encouraging.


    For those who say that Suh and Bo lost the game on the late hit and then personal foul late, I disagree. I believe it was lost because Watson chose not to run the ball on that 3rd and 2 way back in the first quarter.



    Thoughts?

    Friday, September 12, 2008

    Is it time for Price?

    It's mid-September and the Tampa Bay Rays are still in first place. They've overcome injuries this year to Aki Iwamura, Carlos Pena, Troy Percival (3 times), Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett and (most recently) Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and B.J. Upton to maintain a 2.5 game lead heading into this weekend's three-game series in the Bronx with the dreaded (and nearly eliminated!) NY Yankees.

    Guys like Gabe Gross, (former HUSKER) Dan Johnson, Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar have stepped up and helped this team to victories at different points this year. It's been a magical year in the Tampa Bay area - not that "fans" there would know since they seem insistent on staying home from the Trop (but that's a different rant for a different day).

    That's right folks, the Rays have a magic number of 16 to clinch the division.



    In today's St. Pete Times, columnist John Romano calls for manager Joe Maddon to change the role of closer Percival. I've fought this idea personally because Percy is the only guy in that bullpen with significant closing experience in September and October. He's been to (and won) a World Series with the Angels while guys like Grant Balfour (with his 97-MPH heater and mound-mumbling) and Dan Wheeler (with his 89-MPH "warmer" and being Maddon's son-in-law) have not been in the same type of pressure-cooker as Percival.

    I love Wheels and Balfour in setup situations - just as I do J.P. Howell, Trever Miller (this year) and the rest of that 'pen. But face it fans - Percy is the only guy qualified to close right now.

    Now I know that I just bemoaned the lack of experience of Wheeler and Balfour as a reason to keep them as setup guys, but I have a different idea for someone to replace Percival. Why don't the Rays pull a page from the Yankees playbook and give David Price a shot? New York did that with (former HUSKER) Joba Chamberlain and it seems to have worked out pretty well for them. It didn't hinder Chamberlain's ability to transition to being a starter this year.

    Give Price a shot for a couple of games and see what he can do? Try him in the 7th or 8th innings and watch him blow away a few hitters and then tell me that he isn't the man for the job. I vividly recall his first appearance this past March during Spring Training at Legends Field in Tampa against these very Yankees. He blew away three straight after hitting one batter.

    There's a reason that he was the No. 1 pick in the draft and moved from A to AA to AAA this year (and dominated at each level). He's SPECIAL!

    I know all of the arguments about clubhouse cameraderie and upsetting the "mojo" of a team already in first place and with a legitimate shot at the best record in the majors, but Price has that "it" factor and could be the guy to get the Rays over the hump and into their first post-season. Why not give it a try? It can't be any worse than watching Percival struggle through another 9th. When was the last time Percy went through an inning without at least bringing the tying run to the plate? My heart can't take it anymore! Try Price!

    Tuesday, August 12, 2008

    It just keeps getting worse...

    Now Evan Longoria is on the 15-day DL with a fracture in his wrist. What was thought to be just a bruise that would have had him back in the lineup today has turned into a 15-day trip. Longoria will be eligible to come off the DL August 23.

    It's looking more and more likely that Carl Crawford is done for 2008.

    What does this mean for the Rays?

    They play 3 @ Oakland and 3 @ Texas before returning home for 3 with the ML-leading Angels. Then they get a day off before heading to Chicago for the Central-leading White Sox.

    Longoria will be eligible to come off the DL at the end of that Chicago series. Hopefully he's able to play by then.

    To finish August they get 6 games at home against Toronto and Baltimore and then we hit crunch time in September. Aside from a 4-game visit from Minnesota and a 4-game trip to Detroit to end the season, all of their games in September will be intra-divisional games. They have 6 each (3 home and 3 away) with both the Yankees and Red Sox. Those 12 games will likely decide the division and who gets to play in October.

    It's time for players like Akinori Iwamura, B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena to step up and play like we know they can. Aki and Pena have been showing signs of breaking out over the last two or three weeks. The batting averages of both have been steadily climbing, and Pena's driving in runs again.

    Pitching and defense has carried them all year. It will need to continue to be that way. They need Scott Kazmir to recapture his form from April and May and Shields, Jackson, Garza and Sonnanstine to continue pitching as they have been. The bullpen needs to keep it up - Wheeler, Balfour, Howell and even Trever Miller to continue pitching well. And they need Troy Percival to time-warp back to 2001 and start blowing hitters away.

    They need Jason Bartlett back at shortstop - they're infinitely better up the middle with him in there.

    Their best player this year has been Longoria.

    Their best player in club history has been Crawford.

    Missing them both at the most important time in club history... either it's disaster, or they step up and finish what's been the best story in baseball this summer.

    Monday, August 11, 2008

    Updating Crawford

    Updating Carl Crawford's situation. Rays' trainer Ron Porterfield extrapolated a bit on what was said before Sunday's game.

    From the TampaBay.com Rays blog "The Heater":

    The Rays are officially calling Crawford's injury "right middle finger tendon subluxation'' and head athletic trainer Ron Porterfield said to was too early to predict how much beyond the 15-day DL period Crawford will be out until he sees team hand specialist Dr. Doug Carlan today in St. Petersburg. "I wouldn't even put a timeframe on it right now until our doctor sees him,'' Porterfield said.

    Crawford, who was to fly back to Tampa Sunday afternoon, said he was hurt on his final at-bat Saturday, checking his swing on a 3-1 pitch before a 10th-inning walk.

    "I felt my hand pop," Crawford said."I don't really know yet (what's wrong) I just know it's real sore. ... I felt it last night and I thought it was something I could just shake off, but when I got to the outfield and tried to play catch and I knew it was worse.''

    Porterfield said Crawford told him after playing the field it "felt like a rubberband snap" and that his "finger locks."

    The problem, Porterfield said, is that the tendon that runs the length of the finger is "out of the groove" and slides over to the side of the third and largest knuckle, which is a sign of damage to the tissue that holds it in place. "More than likely he's disrupted that,'' Porterfield said, "so it's not holding that tendon in the proper grove." Crawford is "point tender" on the spot. The finger can be manipulated back into place and it feels fine, but as soon as it is flexed the problem reoccurs.

    Porterfield stressed that there was no way to predict how long Crawford will be out until further diagnosis, but said in general the problem could be fixed by putting the finger in a split and resting it, or it could have to be repaired surgically, with the tissue reconstructed."

    At this point in time, with our situation, we're going to do whatever we can to get him back on the field as soon as possible,'' Porterfield said. "So whether that's splinting it and trying to let it heal or whether it's intervention at some point in time, I wouldn't even be able to tell you until he sees that specialist.''

    Since the injury on his non-throwing hand, the bigger concern is Crawford's ability to grip and swing the bat.

    Crawford's absence would be a significant blow to the Rays' hopes to make the postseason for the first time as he is is one of their top overall players, hitting .273 with 8 homers and 57 RBIs and leading the team with 69 runs.

    "Carl's been one of our best clutch hitters recently, specifically, and obviously everything else that he brings, his defense in the outfield, his speed on the bases, his veteranship, all that stuff's going to be missed,'' manager Joe Maddon said.

    Doesn't sound very promising, does it?

    Sunday, August 10, 2008

    Well that's great... and that sucks!

    Just when the Rays were winning 3 of 4 in Seattle to post a franchise-record 71 wins (with 45 games remaining I might add!), the nicks and bumps were starting to add up.

    Evan Longoria has missed the last three games in Seattle after being hit on the back of his right wrist on Thursday.

    Jason Bartlett has been limited to playing DH over the last week due to a bruised index finger.

    Although he's been okay and able to play, catcher Shawn Riggans was nearly impaled by a fastball just after Longoria was hit.

    The worst news, however, was that Carl Crawford has a tendon injury in one of his fingers which landed him on the 15-day DL today. It could be 6 to 8 weeks before he returns, and the injury may have ended his season.

    From the St. Pete Times website TampaBay.com:
    The Rays are officially calling Crawford's injury "right middle finger tendon subluxation'' and head athletic trainer Ron Porterfield said to was too early to predict how much beyond the 15-day DL period Crawford will be out until he sees team hand specialist Dr. Doug Carlan today in St. Petersburg. "I wouldn't even put a timeframe on it right now until our doctor sees him,'' Porterfield said.

    The good news for Tampa Bay today was that Rocco Baldelli (yes, THAT Rocco Baldelli) played in his first major league game in over a year. Baldelli missed the last 124 games of 2007 and the first 116 of 2008, but today he went 1 for 4 with a single and an RBI in his return to the lineup. He also made a diving catch in right field before leaving in the sixth inning.

    So pitching and defense - which have carried the Rays all year - will have to continue to do the job as they wait for Longoria to return and hope that Crawford can make it back.

    The good news is that Carlos Pena's bat seems to be heating up (.324 with 4 HR and 11 RBI in his last 10 games) as well as Aki Iwamura (.356 in his last 10).

    Even better was Edwin Jackson's start today where he went 7 innings giving up 7 hits and only one run on a solo homer. That followed Friday night's outing by James Shields where he seemed to break out of his road woes - going 6 2/3 innings and giving up only 3 earned runs to lower his season ERA to 3.65.

    The Rays also picked up Chad Bradford from Baltimore earlier this week - releasing Al Reyes to make room on the roster. Bradford brings a 2.34 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of work this year and his submarine style gives the bullpen a different look for the opposing lineup.

    Finally there is 22-year old David Price the Rays' top pick in the 2007 draft out of Vanderbilt. Price has rolled through the minor leagues with an 11-0 record and 1.87 ERA at classes A and AA. The hard-throwing lefty has allowed only 70 hits in 91 2/3 innings and has struck out 92 while walking only 23.

    Word on the street is that Price will be called up in late August. Anyone who saw him play in spring training knows that Price has the best stuff of any pitcher in the Rays' system - including Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza.

    Price could be the final piece to the puzzle that puts the Rays into the post-season for the first time - if there's a healthy position player remaining on the roster by October!

    Friday, August 8, 2008

    Long TIme, No Blog

    I've been busy - very busy - but I didn't realize I'd been so neglectful! I checked my blog this morning and realized that it's been since December 19 that I wrote anything! Damned online poker has been monopolizing my free time! :-)

    Let's catch up a bit... Nebraska has a new coaching staff and the concern of losing their recruiting class for 2008 because of the turnover was somewhat warranted. NU lost Blaine Gabbert, Adrian Hilburn, Bryce Givens, Doug Rippy, Shaun Mohler, Dan Hoch and Reilly Reiff.

    However, some recruits who decommitted later recommitted to coach Pelini's staff. Tops among those players were LB Will Compton and DE Josh Williams. RB Collins Okafor - who was looking around - later reaffirmed his commitment.

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    After Pelini and crew got settled, NU added 13 players to their class.

    They dipped into states such as Texas, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana and Ohio.

    In my last blog (way back in December) I mentioned DT Quentin Toailoa and WR Khiry Cooper were considering the Big Red. Both signed with NU in February.

    Cooper was a high draft pick of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim/Chino Hills/Huntington Beach and as such has some financial options available to him that most college freshmen would kill for. Thus far Cooper has turned the Angels down. The deadline is fast-approaching, so look for the team to make one final push with a big offer. If it gets into seven digits it's possible Cooper may take the money and run, but I believe we'll see him suiting up for both Bo Pelini and Mike Anderson during 2008-09.

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    From what I've heard from fall camp and summer conditioning, freshmen who could make an immediate impact - whether it's on special teams or on the two-deep - include LB Alonzo Whaley, CB Alfonzo Dennard, TE Ben Cotton, TE Kyler Reed, DT Baker Steinkuhler and the aforementioned Compton and Cooper.

    Another piece of Pelini's plan for his program is the emphasis on walk-ons. That emphasis might pay dividends this fall. There are a number of freshmen on the 105-man roster, including linebacker Matt Holt, defensive tackle Justin Jackson, offensive lineman Brian Thorson and defensive back Jase Dean. Holt has been working with the two-deep at a thin linebacker corps and has already made an impression on the coaching staff.

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    Speaking of fall camp, it's been eventful already. Kevin Dixon has been dismissed from the team and Ty Steinkuhler has been sitting out most of the week with an undisclosed injury (which may be a back issue from what I hear). The DT position is one injury away from being potentially decimated! Guys like Ndamukong Suh and Shukree Barfield need to watch out when they step into the street!

    Seth Jensen leaving the team last spring hurts even more now, as he could have stepped into the two-deep.

    Guys like Ben Martin, Terrence Moore, and freshman Baker Steinkuhler may need to step up and produce this fall. Moore is coming along well according to Pelini, however it also sounds like he's a ways away from making an impact.

    "Terrence is making progress," Pelini told HuskersIllustrated.com. "He's not exactly where we want him to be yet and probably won't be for a long time. He's working hard though and hopefully he'll continue to get better."

    The younger Steinkuhler certainly has the size (6-foot-6, 290 pounds) and the motor to compete at the D-1 level. How quickly he picks up the defense will determine how much he plays.

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    What about 2009 recruiting? There's been much hand-wringing on message boards about the lack of 'stars' on the current list of commitments. NU has 10 prospects pledged so far with six of them coming from Texas. Of the remaining four, two are from Nebraska and one each from Florida and Pennsylvania.

    Four-star QB Cody Green of Dayton (Texas) leads the pack. At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds with 4.6-second speed in the 40 and a rocket arm, Green looks like the future of Nebraska football.

    Husker fans have seen big-time prospect QBs commit and then be lost recently. Do names like Josh Freeman and Blaine Gabbert ring a bell? What makes Green different? He has an older sister who will be entering graduate school at NU in the fall. I think it's very likely that Green signs with NU in February.

    Among the other commitments, RB Dontrayveous "Tray" Robinson looks like an outstanding prospect. Rivals lists him as a three-star, but he is on the cusp of four-star status and is the No. 58 prospect in Texas overall.

    Robinson combines big-back size (6-1/215) with tailback speed (4.5-seconds in the 40). He plays for one of the top schools in Texas' biggest class at Euless Trinity. In fact, some national publications (http://prepnation.com/ for example) have Trinity listed as the top team in the nation for 2008.

    Another player on that Trinity team is DT Siosaia Tuipulotu (6-2/285) who will be making an official visit to Lincoln with Robinson September 5. Tuipuloto is Rivals' No. 49-ranked player in Texas with 3 stars. He lists his top three as NU, Utah and Louisville. Getting a prospect with Polynesian background to Lincoln has always been difficult, however sophomore RB Roy Helu is showing us that it's not impossible. Hopefully Helu can make an impact on Tuipulotu, and along with Robinson's emphasis he'll commit.

    Tuipulotu would be the third DT to commit, joining Cole Pensick (6-2/250) of Lincoln Northeast and Thaddeus Randle (6-1/255) of Galena Park (Texas) North Shore. Both are rated by Rivals with 3 stars.

    Randle plays for another Texas program which is highly-ranked nationally by PrepNation.com. North Shore is ranked tenth in the preseason poll. They have won 70 straight regular-season games, but have won just one state title during that run. Randle - and his 6 teammates with D-1 offers - hope to add title number two this year.

    A prospect who has message boards buzzing is all-purpose back David Oku of Midwest City (Okla.) Carl Albert who has NU in his top four schools and has scheduled an official visit for the Virginia Tech game Sept 27. Oku is Rivals' No. 1-ranked all-purpose back and No. 82 in the nation at all positions. As a freshman he rushed for over 800 yards, followed up by over 1,400 yards and 19 touchdowns as a sophomore and over 1,600 yards with 20 TDs as a junior. He will decide from among NU, Louisville, Tennessee and Florida State.

    Wide receivers Brady Brown (6-5/190) of Argyle (Texas) and Abrecus Martinez (6-2/185) of Rayville (La.) are the top two WR possibilities to commit soon.

    Brown is down to NU, Kansas, Stanford and Vanderbilt, but NU clearly leads. He caught 97 passes for almost 1,100 yards and 12 TDs as a junior.

    Martinez will visit Sept. 6 for the San Jose State game and could have a decision between shortly after his trip. He holds offers from Colorado and Ole Miss, but has maintained a top two of NU and Tulsa for months now.

    “It’s possible I could commit (to Nebraska),” Martinez told HuskersIllustrated.com. “It all depends on how things go. I’ll try to hold off. I’d at least go back home for a couple of days to think about it (before committing).”

    I expect NU to take only two receivers in this class. If both Brown and Martinez make their decisions, that should be all they take.

    There will be more, but I'm running out of time. I'll try to write more frequently. Go Big Red!