Thursday, September 20, 2007

The 2008 class: From Stars to Reaches

There’s a lot of buzz about the early rankings for the 2008 Nebraska recruiting class. Rivals.com currently ranks the Huskers with the No. 7 class nationally. Those rankings are subjective, based on the (somewhat expert) opinions of analysts with many years of experience evaluating prospects. I tend to lend some credence to those rankings, but I lend more weight to what other schools players have scholarship offers from. This can be somewhat inaccurate though, because often a player will commit early in the recruiting process and schools will never get the opportunity to offer a scholarship.

So how is Nebraska really doing in recruiting this year? Here’s my best effort at breaking down the kids already committed based on stars and offers.

Nebraska has two commitments ranked by Rivals.com with five-stars, the highest ranking the recruiting service gives out.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert (6-4/224/4.65) of Ballwin, Mo. won the Elite 11 quarterback camp’s MVP award this past summer. He committed to Nebraska over offers from schools such as Oregon, Tennessee, Alabama, Iowa, and Missouri. It was generally accepted that Gabbert would not leave the Midwest for college, so schools in the SEC and Pac Ten did not recruit him strongly. I think he will be a star in Lincoln.

Offensive lineman Baker Steinkuhler (6-6/290/4.88) of Lincoln Southwest shows only one scholarship offer on his list – Nebraska. That’s because Steinkuhler committed to the Huskers only two days after he received his scholarship offer. He is an NU legacy, with both his father (Dean) and brother (Ty) playing for the Huskers. That legacy, more than anything, kept other schools from “wasting their time” recruiting Steinkuhler. He will play in the NFL someday after a stellar college career. Star

The five-star players are likely to be stars in college and have excellent potential to play in the NFL someday.

Four-star players frequently turn into all-conference players and many go on to play professionally, whether it’s in the NFL, CFL, or Arena League.

NU has four-stars in offensive lineman Bryce Givens (6-6/257/5.1) from Denver, Colo., running back Jonas Gray (5-10/213/4.44) of Detroit, Mich., linebacker Shaun Mohler (6-3/225/4.6) of Orange Coast (Calif.) Community College, linebacker Will Compton (6-2/214/4.5) of Bonne Terre, Mo. and offensive lineman Dan Hoch (6-6/302/5.21) of Harlan, Iowa.

Givens chose NU over Texas, Florida, UCLA, Colorado, Michigan, and Louisville. That is a strong contingent of suitors, which would indicate that he is expected to be a very strong college player. Contributor

Gray, the top player in Michigan according to Rivals, decided on the Huskers over the home-state Wolverines, Florida, Louisville, and Wisconsin among others. When the defending national champion Gators head out of Florida to recruit running backs that’s high praise. Gray should be a good player at NU. Contributor

Mohler, a junior college player ranked among the top 15 players nationally by Rivals.com, chose NU primarily over California and Colorado. JUCO players are easier to project because they have a year or two of higher-level competition out of high school. However, they are recruited based on filling needs. Many of the top programs nationally have great depth coming up at linebacker. Nebraska has a bit of a gap between four seniors graduating this year and the next level of freshmen and sophomores, so Mohler fills a need. Expect him to see the field next year. Contributor

Compton had offers from around the Big Ten and Big Twelve. He picked the Huskers over Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois among others. He also had strong interest from Notre Dame, but no written offer. It would seem that many colleges felt that Compton can play BCS-level football. Contributor

Hoch was the least sought-after player among the four-stars, garnering offers from just Iowa State and Kansas State. Rivals ranks him as the top prospect in Iowa, but it’s widely-acknowledged to be a less-than-stellar year in the Hawkeye State for college-level talent. Hoch committed before his junior year ended, which means that schools couldn’t evaluate his senior year film and offer based on his senior play. Still, he is somewhat of a question mark to me. He may be a contributor, but the level of other schools recruiting him doesn’t elicit excitement from me. I see Hoch as a reach.

Where evaluations get into more of a gray area is when we look at the three-star and two-star prospects. Currently Nebraska has 15 of their 22 commitments at these two levels.

Atop the list is Sean Fisher (6-5/210/4.6) of Millard North. Fisher chose NU over suitors such as Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Arizona State, and Colorado. He had 16 written offers when he committed to Nebraska, and most of them were BCS-level schools. He projects to the college level as an outside linebacker very well. I was told that Oklahoma defensive coordinator Brent Venables was very disappointed to not get Fisher’s pledge. Star

JUCO wide receiver Adrian Hilburn (6-2/190/4.4) of City College of San Francisco picked NU over Tennessee and Texas A&M. There was a time when Tennessee was known as “Wide Receiver University”, so the fact that the Vols went after Hilburn from the other side of the nation is impressive. However, none of the Pac Ten schools recruited him hard so I’m less inclined to declare him a future star. Time will tell on Hilburn. Contributor

Defensive end Cameron Meredith (6-4/222/4.6) of Santa Ana, Calif. was being recruited heavily by schools around the Big Twelve and Pac Ten. He held offers from Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, and others when he pledged to the Huskers. Meredith’s films show that he plays to the whistle on every snap, indicating the type of mentality that should serve him well in college. I expect him to be a star at Nebraska.

Running back Collins Okafor (6-1/210/4.54) of Omaha Westside received his Nebraska offer in early October of 2006 and committed late that month. Despite leading Class A in rushing as a junior, Okafor had no additional offers. Did NU find diamond that no one else noticed? Time will tell, but the level of recruitment Okafor received sets off some alarms for me. Reach

Port Arthur, Texas defensive back David Whitmore (6-2/190/4.5) made his pledge to Nebraska before his junior year ended, picking the Huskers over Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Kansas State. He has not yet visited Lincoln, and is still considered somewhat of a soft commitment by recruiting gurus. His play in the Texas 7-on-7 State Championship this past summer moved him up in many analysts’ eyes. With his height and speed, Whitmore should be a very good college player. Contributor

Josh Williams (6-4/220/4.8) is a defensive end from Denton, Texas. Williams had a long list of offers, but only a few from upper-level BCS schools. Missouri, Arkansas, Arizona, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State were among his most recognizable suitors. Williams is still growing, and his early-season play has been spectacular in Texas’ biggest class. He recorded four sacks in the first game alone. I think Williams will be a solid contributor at NU, but whether he’s a star is dependent upon him putting on weight.

Wide receiver D.J. Woods (6-0/169/4.35) of Strongsville, Ohio is a great example of an underrated player by recruiting services. Despite being a mid-level three-star recruit according to Rivals, Woods held offers from Ohio State, Penn State, West Virginia, Auburn, and Iowa before choosing Nebraska. Many big-time programs believe Woods will be successful in Division I. Who am I to disagree? Star

Marrero, La. defensive end Eric Harper (6-4/220/4.62) picked NU over Texas A&M and Mississippi State. His other written offers came from smaller schools, primarily because he was lost in the shuffle after Hurricane Katrina. Harper will graduate in December and be in Lincoln for spring practice. I expect him to contribute as a redshirt freshman or true sophomore, and be a strong player for many years in Lincoln.

Tight end Tyson Hetzer (6-7/265/4.75) of Citrus Community College in California had only an offer from Nebraska, and it was based on practice film only. Hetzer played JUCO basketball in 2006. NFL players like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates converted basketball backgrounds into football stardom. Can Hetzer do the same? With only the Nebraska offer, it would seem that other schools don’t think so. He could be a reach.

Overland Park, Kan. athlete Kyler Reed (6-3/204/4.5) picked NU over Colorado and Missouri and many lower-level Big Twelve schools such as Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State. His suitors are mid-level at best, which would seem to translate to solid but not spectacular contributions in college.

Linebacker Doug Rippy (6-2/218) of Trotwood, Ohio had offers from Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan State and some lower-level Division I programs. His senior year is only his second year of high school football, and first-hand reports of his play have been very positive. The offers don’t translate into college stardom, but he’s still learning the game. I think he’s a future contributor in Lincoln.

Ricky Henry (6-4/300/5.2) picked NU over Colorado and Houston. The center from North Dakota College of Science must do some work academically to make it to Lincoln before spring practice. If he can do that, he will be given an opportunity to replace Brett Byford next fall. Personally I don't think he will make it to Lincoln. Reach

Wichita, Kan. defensive tackle Darius Parish (6-3/325/5.08) has stunning athleticism for his size, yet only received scholarship offers from Kansas and Colorado State along with NU. He didn’t receive offers, but he had strong interest from Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Missouri as well. Parish can be a space-eater on the defensive line for NU for many years, and I would not be surprised to see him playing as a true freshman. Star

Two-star safety Keelan Johnson (6-0/195/4.5) of Mesa, Ariz. picked NU over the home-state Arizona Wildcats. He also had interest from Nevada, Oregon and Arizona State despite being “only” a two-star prospect. He arrived at NU’s summer camp without an offer, but two days after leaving Lincoln the Husker coaches tendered and one month later he accepted. After a couple of years to get faster and stronger, Johnson should contribute in NU’s defensive backfield.

John Levorson (6-4/185/4.55) of Crete chose NU over Wyoming and Ohio. Those offers don’t translate to Division I stardom, but NU offered him only after his performance at their summer camp. They’ve seen what he can do in person, and they believe he can contribute. That’s good enough for me.

The final tally shows more stars and contributors than reaches in this class.

Future Stars: 8
4-stars – 2
3-stars – 2
2-stars – 4

Future Contributors: 10
4-stars – 2
3-stars – 6
2-stars – 2

Reaches: 4
4-stars – 1
3-stars – 3