Friday, December 19, 2008

Are stars a good predictor?

The question has been debated endlessly on message boards for years now, "How do recruiting rankings translate into college performance?"


My contention is that for the most part, Rivals.com does a pretty good job with their evaluations, but the will inevitably miss on a few guys. It's nearly impossible to not miss based on their being hundreds of thousands of high school football players out there.


Here's a portion of the explanation from Rivals.com's own site regarding how Rivals ranks players.

Players are also ranked on their quality with a star ranking. A five-star prospect is considered to be one of the nation's top 25-30 players, four star is a top 250-300 or so player, three-stars is a top 750 level player, two stars means the player is a mid-major prospect and one star means the player is not ranked.


The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1 - 4.9.

  • 6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect
  • 6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
  • 5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
  • 5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player
  • 4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about


    With those guidelines in mind, let's take a look at the 2008 All-American and All-Big 12 teams with kudos and thanks to HuskersIllustrated.com's Mike Matya who compiled the list and the stars. I added the Rivals rankings.


    First-team All-Americans [AP, ESPN and Rivals]







































    QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)3 star 5.7 rating
    RB Shonn Greene (Iowa)2 star 5.0 rating
    RB Javon Ringer (Michigan State)3 star 5.7 rating
    RB Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State)3 star 5.6 rating
    WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)4 star 5.8 rating
    WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)4 star 6.0 rating
    OT Andre Smith (Alabama)5 star 6.1 rating
    OT Michael Oher (Ole Miss)4 star 6.0 rating
    OG Duke Robinson (Oklahoma)4 star 5.8 rating
    OG Herman Johnson (LSU)4 star 6.0 rating
    OG Seth Olsen (Iowa)3 star 5.5 rating
    C Antoine Caldwell (Alabama)3 star 5.5 rating
    C Alex Mack (California)2 star 5.3 rating
    TE Chase Coffman (Missouri)3 star 5.6 rating
    TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)4 star 6.0 rating
    AP Jeremy Maclin (Missouri)4 star 5.8 rating
    AP Percy Harvin (Florida)5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 WR; No. 1 in Rivals100)
    DE Aaron Maybin (Penn State)4 star 5.8 rating
    DE Brian Orakpo (Texas)4 star 5.8 rating
    DE Jerry Hughes (TCU)2 star 5.3 rating
    DT Terrence Cody (Alabama)3 star not rated
    DT Peria Jerry (Ole Miss)3 star 5.5 rating
    DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 DT; No. 4 in Rivals100)
    LB James Laurinaitis (Ohio State)3 star 5.5 rating
    LB Rey Maualuga (USC)5 star 6.1 rating
    LB Brandon Spikes (Florida)5 star 6.1 rating (No 2 OLB; No. 13 in Rivals100)
    LB Mark Herzlich (Boston College)3 star 5.6 rating
    CB Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest)3 star 5.5 rating
    CB Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State)3 star 5.5 rating
    CB D.J. Moore (Vanderbilt)3 star 5.5 rating
    S Taylor Mays (USC)5 star 6.1 rating (No 2 ATH; No. 16 in Rivals100)
    S Eric Berry (Tennessee)5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 CB; No. 3 in Rivals100)
    S Rashad Johnson (Alabama)unranked walkon not rated
    K Louie Sakoda (Utah)2 star not rated
    P Kevin Huber (Cincinnati)unranked walkon not rated
    PR Brandon James (Florida)3 star 5.5 rating
    KR Mardy Gilyard (Cincinnati)2 star 4.9 rating









    Totals:
    RankingCountPercentage
    6.1718.9%
    6.0-5.8924.3%
    5.7-5.51335.1%
    5.4-5.038.1%
    4.912.7%
    unranked410.8%


    First-team All-Big 12 [AP, ESPN and Big 12 coaches]











































    QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    QB Colt McCoy, Texas3 star 5.6 rating
    RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State3 star 5.6 rating
    RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma4 star 6.0 rating
    FB Matt Clapp, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    WR Michael Crabtree Texas Tech4 star 5.8 rating
    WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State4 star 6.0 rating
    AP Jeremy Maclin, Missouri4 star 5.8 rating
    TE Chase Coffman, Missouri3 star 5.6 rating
    TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma4 star 6.0 rating
    OG Duke Robinson, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    OL Jason Smith, Baylor2 star 5.0 rating
    OL Rylan Reed, Texas Techunrated walkon
    OL Russell Okung, Oklahoma State3 star 5.6 rating
    OL Phil Loadholt, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    OL Trent Williams, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    OL Adam Ulatoski, Texas3 star 5.7 rating
    C Jon Cooper, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    DL Brian Orakpo, Texas4 star 5.8 rating
    DL Brandon Williams, Texas Tech2 star 5.4 rating
    DL Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska4 star 5.6 rating
    DL Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    DL Ziggy Hood, Missouriunrated walkon
    DL Gerald McCoy5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 DT; No. 4 in Rivals100)
    DL Roy Miller, Texas4 star 6.0 rating
    LB Joe Pawelek, Baylor2 star 5.2 rating
    LB Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri2 star 5.2 rating
    LB Travis Lewis, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    LB James Holt, Kansas2 star 5.2 rating
    LB Sergio Kindle, Texas5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 ILB; No. 5 in Rivals100)
    DB Darcel McBath, Texas Tech3 star 5.6 rating
    DB Darrell Stuckey, Kansas3 star 5.5 rating
    DB Lendy Holmes, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    DB Daniel Charbonnet, Texas Tech3 star 5.3 rating
    DB Jordan Lake, Baylor2 star 5.1 rating
    DB William Moore, Missouri3 star 5.5 rating
    DB Nic Harris, Oklahoma4 star 5.9 rating
    K Jeff Wolfert, Missouriunrated walkon
    P Justin Brantley, Texas A&M 2 star 5.3 rating
    KR Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State4 star 5.9 rating
    PR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State4 star 6.0 rating










    Totals:
    RankingCountPercentage
    6.124.9%
    6.0-5.81536.6%
    5.7-5.51331.7%
    5.4-5.0819.5%
    4.900%
    unranked37.3%

    What does all of this mean for Nebraska's 2009 recruiting class? Who knows, but it appears that there are many 3 and 4 stars in the 5.56.0 rating groups who make all-American and all-Conference teams. There are definitely some 'diamonds in the rough' who could easily step up their game and earn accolades.


    Here are the star rankings and Rivals ratings of the committed class thus far.
























    QB Cody Green4 stars 5.8 rating
    LB Chris Williams4 stars 5.8 rating
    DB Dijon Washington4 stars 5.8 rating
    RB Rex Burkhead4 stars 5.8 rating
    OL Jeremiah Sirles3 stars 5.7 rating
    LB Earnest Norman3 stars 5.7 rating
    DB Andrew Green3 stars 5.7 rating
    DB DeAndre Byrd3 stars 5.6 rating
    TE J.T. Kerr3 stars 5.6 rating
    WR Brandon Kinnie3 stars 5.6 rating
    DT Thaddeus Randle3 stars 5.6 rating
    OL Nick Ash3 stars 5.6 rating
    OL Jesse Coffey3 stars 5.6 rating
    DE Kevin Young3 stars 5.6 rating
    LB Shawn Bodtmann3 stars 5.6 rating
    DB Lazarri Middleton3 stars 5.6 rating
    ATH Taylor Martinez3 stars 5.6 rating
    DB Dejon Gomes3 stars 5.6 rating
    OL Brent Qvale3 stars 5.5 rating
    DT Cole Pensick3 stars 5.5 rating
    RB Dontrayevous Robinson3 stars 5.5 rating
    RB C.J. Zimmerer2 stars 5.4 rating










    Totals:
    RankingCountPercentage
    6.100%
    6.0-5.8418.2%
    5.7-5.51777.3%
    5.4-5.014.5%
    4.900%
    unranked00%

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to alland Go Big Red in Jacksonville!!

    1 comment:

    sean.stevens said...

    My apologies for the formatting. I can't seem to get the extra spaces before the tables to go away.