Friday, December 19, 2008

Are stars a good predictor?

The question has been debated endlessly on message boards for years now, "How do recruiting rankings translate into college performance?"


My contention is that for the most part, Rivals.com does a pretty good job with their evaluations, but the will inevitably miss on a few guys. It's nearly impossible to not miss based on their being hundreds of thousands of high school football players out there.


Here's a portion of the explanation from Rivals.com's own site regarding how Rivals ranks players.

Players are also ranked on their quality with a star ranking. A five-star prospect is considered to be one of the nation's top 25-30 players, four star is a top 250-300 or so player, three-stars is a top 750 level player, two stars means the player is a mid-major prospect and one star means the player is not ranked.


The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1 - 4.9.

  • 6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect
  • 6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
  • 5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
  • 5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player
  • 4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about


    With those guidelines in mind, let's take a look at the 2008 All-American and All-Big 12 teams with kudos and thanks to HuskersIllustrated.com's Mike Matya who compiled the list and the stars. I added the Rivals rankings.


    First-team All-Americans [AP, ESPN and Rivals]







































    QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)3 star 5.7 rating
    RB Shonn Greene (Iowa)2 star 5.0 rating
    RB Javon Ringer (Michigan State)3 star 5.7 rating
    RB Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State)3 star 5.6 rating
    WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)4 star 5.8 rating
    WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)4 star 6.0 rating
    OT Andre Smith (Alabama)5 star 6.1 rating
    OT Michael Oher (Ole Miss)4 star 6.0 rating
    OG Duke Robinson (Oklahoma)4 star 5.8 rating
    OG Herman Johnson (LSU)4 star 6.0 rating
    OG Seth Olsen (Iowa)3 star 5.5 rating
    C Antoine Caldwell (Alabama)3 star 5.5 rating
    C Alex Mack (California)2 star 5.3 rating
    TE Chase Coffman (Missouri)3 star 5.6 rating
    TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)4 star 6.0 rating
    AP Jeremy Maclin (Missouri)4 star 5.8 rating
    AP Percy Harvin (Florida)5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 WR; No. 1 in Rivals100)
    DE Aaron Maybin (Penn State)4 star 5.8 rating
    DE Brian Orakpo (Texas)4 star 5.8 rating
    DE Jerry Hughes (TCU)2 star 5.3 rating
    DT Terrence Cody (Alabama)3 star not rated
    DT Peria Jerry (Ole Miss)3 star 5.5 rating
    DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 DT; No. 4 in Rivals100)
    LB James Laurinaitis (Ohio State)3 star 5.5 rating
    LB Rey Maualuga (USC)5 star 6.1 rating
    LB Brandon Spikes (Florida)5 star 6.1 rating (No 2 OLB; No. 13 in Rivals100)
    LB Mark Herzlich (Boston College)3 star 5.6 rating
    CB Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest)3 star 5.5 rating
    CB Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State)3 star 5.5 rating
    CB D.J. Moore (Vanderbilt)3 star 5.5 rating
    S Taylor Mays (USC)5 star 6.1 rating (No 2 ATH; No. 16 in Rivals100)
    S Eric Berry (Tennessee)5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 CB; No. 3 in Rivals100)
    S Rashad Johnson (Alabama)unranked walkon not rated
    K Louie Sakoda (Utah)2 star not rated
    P Kevin Huber (Cincinnati)unranked walkon not rated
    PR Brandon James (Florida)3 star 5.5 rating
    KR Mardy Gilyard (Cincinnati)2 star 4.9 rating









    Totals:
    RankingCountPercentage
    6.1718.9%
    6.0-5.8924.3%
    5.7-5.51335.1%
    5.4-5.038.1%
    4.912.7%
    unranked410.8%


    First-team All-Big 12 [AP, ESPN and Big 12 coaches]











































    QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    QB Colt McCoy, Texas3 star 5.6 rating
    RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State3 star 5.6 rating
    RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma4 star 6.0 rating
    FB Matt Clapp, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    WR Michael Crabtree Texas Tech4 star 5.8 rating
    WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State4 star 6.0 rating
    AP Jeremy Maclin, Missouri4 star 5.8 rating
    TE Chase Coffman, Missouri3 star 5.6 rating
    TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma4 star 6.0 rating
    OG Duke Robinson, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    OL Jason Smith, Baylor2 star 5.0 rating
    OL Rylan Reed, Texas Techunrated walkon
    OL Russell Okung, Oklahoma State3 star 5.6 rating
    OL Phil Loadholt, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    OL Trent Williams, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    OL Adam Ulatoski, Texas3 star 5.7 rating
    C Jon Cooper, Oklahoma3 star 5.7 rating
    DL Brian Orakpo, Texas4 star 5.8 rating
    DL Brandon Williams, Texas Tech2 star 5.4 rating
    DL Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska4 star 5.6 rating
    DL Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    DL Ziggy Hood, Missouriunrated walkon
    DL Gerald McCoy5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 DT; No. 4 in Rivals100)
    DL Roy Miller, Texas4 star 6.0 rating
    LB Joe Pawelek, Baylor2 star 5.2 rating
    LB Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri2 star 5.2 rating
    LB Travis Lewis, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    LB James Holt, Kansas2 star 5.2 rating
    LB Sergio Kindle, Texas5 star 6.1 rating (No 1 ILB; No. 5 in Rivals100)
    DB Darcel McBath, Texas Tech3 star 5.6 rating
    DB Darrell Stuckey, Kansas3 star 5.5 rating
    DB Lendy Holmes, Oklahoma4 star 5.8 rating
    DB Daniel Charbonnet, Texas Tech3 star 5.3 rating
    DB Jordan Lake, Baylor2 star 5.1 rating
    DB William Moore, Missouri3 star 5.5 rating
    DB Nic Harris, Oklahoma4 star 5.9 rating
    K Jeff Wolfert, Missouriunrated walkon
    P Justin Brantley, Texas A&M 2 star 5.3 rating
    KR Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State4 star 5.9 rating
    PR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State4 star 6.0 rating










    Totals:
    RankingCountPercentage
    6.124.9%
    6.0-5.81536.6%
    5.7-5.51331.7%
    5.4-5.0819.5%
    4.900%
    unranked37.3%

    What does all of this mean for Nebraska's 2009 recruiting class? Who knows, but it appears that there are many 3 and 4 stars in the 5.56.0 rating groups who make all-American and all-Conference teams. There are definitely some 'diamonds in the rough' who could easily step up their game and earn accolades.


    Here are the star rankings and Rivals ratings of the committed class thus far.
























    QB Cody Green4 stars 5.8 rating
    LB Chris Williams4 stars 5.8 rating
    DB Dijon Washington4 stars 5.8 rating
    RB Rex Burkhead4 stars 5.8 rating
    OL Jeremiah Sirles3 stars 5.7 rating
    LB Earnest Norman3 stars 5.7 rating
    DB Andrew Green3 stars 5.7 rating
    DB DeAndre Byrd3 stars 5.6 rating
    TE J.T. Kerr3 stars 5.6 rating
    WR Brandon Kinnie3 stars 5.6 rating
    DT Thaddeus Randle3 stars 5.6 rating
    OL Nick Ash3 stars 5.6 rating
    OL Jesse Coffey3 stars 5.6 rating
    DE Kevin Young3 stars 5.6 rating
    LB Shawn Bodtmann3 stars 5.6 rating
    DB Lazarri Middleton3 stars 5.6 rating
    ATH Taylor Martinez3 stars 5.6 rating
    DB Dejon Gomes3 stars 5.6 rating
    OL Brent Qvale3 stars 5.5 rating
    DT Cole Pensick3 stars 5.5 rating
    RB Dontrayevous Robinson3 stars 5.5 rating
    RB C.J. Zimmerer2 stars 5.4 rating










    Totals:
    RankingCountPercentage
    6.100%
    6.0-5.8418.2%
    5.7-5.51777.3%
    5.4-5.014.5%
    4.900%
    unranked00%

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to alland Go Big Red in Jacksonville!!

    Friday, December 5, 2008

    SP Times: Jarvis Giles still set to announce Tuesday

    Giles to make announcement Tuesday
    from Blog: High School Sports
    Tampabay.com - St. Petersburg Times
    by Times Editor


    Gaither running back Jarvis Giles told the Times this afternoon he will make his college announcement Tuesday at noon.

    Giles -- who committed to Tennessee in the summer but decommitted when the Vols announced coach Phil Fulmer was not returning -- has his schools narrowed down to South Carolina, Nebraska and Tennessee.

    South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier visited Gaither during school Thursday to visit Giles and speak to senior tight end Justin Lattimore. Spurrier is expected to make an in-home visit with Giles Thursday evening.

    On Friday, Tennessee will make its final in-person pitch to their former committment with an apparent Rocky Top hard-court press. Giles said new head coach Lane Kiffin, along with new assistant coach David Reaves -- who recruited Giles for the Gamecocks -- and Stan Drayton, a Tampa native and apparent holdover from Fulmer's staff who recruited Giles for the Vols, will all visit.

    On Sunday, Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini is expected to drop by. Giles just returned from an official visit to Nebraska over the weekend.

    Then it's decision time for Giles.

    -- EDUARDO A. ENCINA

    Wednesday, December 3, 2008

    Pelini's staff turning it up in high schools

    With the regular season completed and a Gator Bowl berth on the near horizon, NU's coaching staff has been hitting the road for in-home and in-school visits. All indications are that they are getting there early and making a strong impression.

    On Day One, they were in the homes of ...

    Committed linebacker Chris Williams (6-1/220/4-stars) of Abilene (Texas)
    "Yes, coach (Barney) Cotton came to our house and it went real good. We was just hung out and talked a little about football and everything. He was just getting to know my mom better and giving her some facts about Lincoln because that's where I'm going to be living."

    Defensive tackle Latu Heimuli (6-3/296/4-stars) of Salt Lake City (Utah) was the first player that head coach Bo Pelini visited.
    "It was really good," Heimuli's father said. "He was just pointing out the needs of the football team and the academic stuff – how they check on all the freshman to make sure they're off to a good start, and make sure everybody is going class… so it was really good – as far as my point of view.

    Running backs coach Tim Beck was in the Tampa Bay area visiting Tampa Plant high school's Orson Charles' (6-3/230/4-stars) mother.
    “Yes sir, a couple schools have been here. The first one to talk to my mom (on Monday) was coach Tim Beck. I didn’t get to talk to him too much, but my mom said it went good. I also saw Purdue at my practice.”

    On the other coast in California were defensive coordinator Carl Pelini and defensive backs coach Marvin Sanders. They were in the school of Long Beach Poly DB Lazarri Middleton (6-1/190/unrated).
    “Nebraska and SMU are my leaders, and I’m really interested in Nebraska right now. After I come back from SMU, in some short time frame I’ll make my decision. Yes, I could easily choose Nebraska before I visit them.”

    Middleton only sports offers from SMU and Idaho State along with NU at this point, however schools like Kansas State, UCLA, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are actively recruiting him and likely to offer. NU seems to have beaten everyone to the punch on this one!

    Carl Pelini also visited linebacker Eric Martin (6-2/215/4-stars) of Moreno Valley (Calif.). He's taking his SAT this weekend so he can begin official visits after that.
    "Hopefully, Nebraska will be my first one, and then Arizona, and maybe Washington. It's all about what I could do my first year there - if I'd have to red shirt or if I'd have a chance to play early. I'm looking to see how many of their linebackers are seniors. I'd like the chance to play my freshman year. That would be nice."

    Defensive end Sean Stanley (6-2/250/4-stars) of Gaithersburg (Md.) who is committed to Penn State but visited Lincoln recently is also on the list. Coach John Papuchis is scheduled to visit him Thursday and head coach Pelini is planning to visit next Wednesday. That Pelini visit could be canceled if Stanley likes what he sees on his official visit to Penn State this weekend.
    "It just depends on my visit," Stanley said. "If I go and I'm sure Penn State is the right choice, then I'm going to Penn State. If there is any doubt, I'll tell coach Pelini to come out and maybe take another trip back to each school."

    There are others in process which have not been reported yet. Suffice it to say that the NU staff is not only hitting the trail hard, but they are also turning over rocks to find top prospects (see Middleton) that other schools have yet to approach.

    This class is shaping up to be very strong!

    Thursday, October 30, 2008

    Here's to the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays

    American League Champions!

    No, that team in the World Series was not the same team we saw from May through the ALCS. I leave the Major League season frustrated, disappointed and totally 100% PROUD of my team!

    Here's what they're saying...
    St. Pete Times:
    Rays miracle season over, but its effects will last - http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/article881466.ece#comments

    World Series: Remember the Tampa Bay Rays' good times - http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/article881459.ece

    Rays have less time to prepare for next season after World Series run - http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/article881410.ece

    Tampa Tribune:
    Dream Ends, But It Was a Summer to Remember - http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/oct/30/na-bell-tolls-for-rays-bell-tolls-for-rays/

    Maddon Never Wavered - http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/oct/29/300044/w1-maddon-never-wavered/sports-rays/

    Rays Come Up Short On Game's Biggest Stage - http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/oct/30/300033/w1-rays-come-up-short-on-games-biggest-stage/sports-rays/

    Monday, October 20, 2008

    It's cold in the deep, deep south

    Adolf Hitler and Ted Bundy are looking for winter coats and ice skates! Hell has officially frozen over!

    As improbable… As unbelievable… As preposterous as it sounds, the Tampa Bay Rays (yes THOSE Rays!) are going to the World Series!

    In a sign of what they’ve become to the Tampa Bay Area, during the Bucs Sunday night game in Raymond James Stadium against Seattle a Warrick Dunn 1-yard run was greeted by the fans in the stadium with wild cheers.

    Was it because Dunn scored a TD or gained a first down? Nope! It was because fans had been made aware (via the scoreboard, their blackberries, Rays’ radio broadcasts and their in-stands neighbors) that the Rays had just tied the game on Carlos Pena’s first-to-home dash in the fifth inning. Chants of “Let’s Go Rays” could be heard on the Buc’s radio broadcast!

    For the first ten years of their existence the Rays were an exercise in futility. They finished in last place nine (!) times in those ten years – including 2006 and 2007 – and never finished higher than fourth.

    Their team record for wins coming into this season was 70 – SEVENTY(!) – in 2004.

    Lofty goals for this season among long-time fans included finishing at or above .500 and finishing third in the AL East.

    Now they’ve gone from worst to first – Wild Card qualifier, AL East Champs, ALDS winners and now American League Champions!



    And how sweet was it that Rocco Baldelli – after all that he’s been through physically and emotionally the last few years – was the guy who delivered the game winning RBI??


    The last team to go from worst record in MLB to the World Series? The 1991 Atlanta Braves. Sure, those Braves lost the Series – possibly the best World Series in history – to the (also worst-to-first) Minnesota Twins. However, that year jump-started a run of 14 straight playoff appearances for the Braves.

    Can the Rays follow that Braves example? In today’s AL East, it will be very difficult. The Yankees and Red Sox spend money like the federal government and the Blue Jays are not far behind.

    Still, there are similarities to those early-90’s Atlanta teams that are unmistakable. It starts with pitching.

    Atlanta had Glavine, Smoltz and Avery who were home-grown. Tampa Bay has Shields, Sonnanstine and Price.

    Atlanta traded for Maddux – Tampa Bay traded for Kazmir and Garza.
    Neither team has a bullpen that they can count on in the playoffs, especially at the closer spot. Atlanta struggled through guys like Alejandro Pena, Mark Wohlers and John Rocker. The Rays have had Troy Percival (past his prime) and Dan Wheeler.

    On the bench, the Braves had (have) Bobby Cox who had been in the game for decades and had finally found the right place for his managerial style. The Rays have Joe Maddon who spent decades with the Angels organization before finally getting his shot to manage – he hasn’t disappointed.

    There are a lot of similarities.

    The Rays accomplished this championship with the second-lowest payroll in MLB - $44 million.

    The good news for Rays’ fans is that many of the young stars on this team are locked up for a few years already. Here’s a great article from MLB.com’s Jim Molony regarding how the team was built. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081006&content_id=3600016&vkey=news_tb&fext=.jsp&c_id=tb&partnerId=rss_tb

    Rays players and the year their contract ends (includes club option years)





    200920102011201220142016
    BradfordPenaWheelerKazmirShieldsLongoria
    FloydCrawfordBaldelliPrice
    MillerIwamura
    Niemann

    There are some players – such as Garza, Navarro, Upton, Jackson, Howell, Aybar, Sonnanstine, and Riggans – whose contracts are up after this year. They won’t be able to sign them all, but those first three are critical to maintaining this team.

    Navi handles this staff very well and has finally started to produce offensively like the Yankees (who drafted him) and the Dodgers (who groomed him) thought he would. He’s critical to keep.

    Upton is one of the brightest young stars in the game, and has hit seven home runs this post-season after struggling through injury all season. He’s still learning to play center field after being drafted as a shortstop, yet when you watch him glide around the outfield you see multiple Gold Gloves in his future. He’s critical to keep.

    Garza is only the ALCS MVP. He’s been great ever since he had that dust-up with Navi in Texas mid-summer.



    Before the all-star game, Garza was 7-5 with a 3.96 ERA. After the mid-summer classic, he went 4-4 but his ERA was only 3.39 in the second half.

    Most importantly last night – in the biggest game of his young career – Garza stepped up and knocked it out of the park! Pitching into the 8th and allowing only

    He’s critical to maintain the rotation with Shields, Kazmir and Price.
    So the payroll will rise, but that’s to be expected. How much it rises is the key, but I’d expect closer to $64M than $44M next season.

    Speaking of David Price, all the rookie did was step into the biggest game in team history in the biggest situation of the post-season thus far and deliver the biggest win in team history.



    He enters with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth and strikes out the Sox hottest clutch hitter, J.D. Drew. Then when it made the most sense to pull the rookie after that emotional out, Maddon sends him out there and he walks the first guy to bring the tying run to the plate with nobody out. What does the rookie do? He strikes out the next two guys – including Boston captain Jason Varitek – and gets the game-ender on a ground ball to 2B.

    "I knew that David had a lot of emotional bullets left," Maddon said. "[I] talked to him before the game, and he's not impacted by the situation. So there's Drew [at the plate] -- the right guy, I thought, was David Price."

    Price has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and may supplant Shields in that spot as early as next Spring.

    The future is certainly bright in St. Petersburg; however it’s the present that we’re concerned with right now. It’s poetic, don’t you think Tampa Bay fans, that the Rays will have to beat a Philadelphia team to win the title?
    The Bucs had to go through the Eagles and they did so by closing down Veteran’s Stadium in the NFC title game.

    The Lightning had to go through the Flyers in the second round of the NHL playoffs on their way to the Stanley Cup in 2005.

    Now the Rays have to take out the Phillies to win the World Series.

    Here’s to hoping that the pattern continues! Go Rays!