pre-season predictions

It's that time of year - FOOTBALL SEASON!! Every pre-season magazine has been on the newsstands for a couple of months now, and ESPN and Fox Sports have been hammering us with their opinions. I guess it's time to add mine...

Let's talk about BCS conference predictions first. I'll pick the following schools to win their respective league championships:

• ACC Va Tech over Florida State
• Big 10(11) Wisconsin - Michigan will find a way to screw it up - they always do.
• Big East West Virginia - Louisville w/o Petrino can't hang, and neither can Rutgers.
• Pac 10 USC should run away. Only Cal can really challenge them.
• SEC LSU over Florida - I'm not sold on the Gators getting here, but who else? Georgia is too young, Tennessee is like Michigan (talented but poorly coached) and who knows if South Carolina will step up this year?

Before we discuss the Big 12, let's look at Nebraska's schedule and my predictions for their season.

• Nevada This is a good team that played Miami close in a bowl last December. They've lost some really good players to pre-season injury and suspension, however. I'll say NU 38-17 (1-0)
• @ Wake Not quite the same team that won the ACC last year. They won't sneak up on anyone, and they didn't blow out anyone last year anyway. NU wins a close road game in front of a stadium at least 30% filled with NU fans 31-23 (2-0)
• USC This defense is ridiculously fast and talented, and John David Booty can sling it with the best in the nation. The RBs and WRs are the question, and NU will have two games under their belts. Still... I don't know... I guess I'll go with the homer pick, but I'm not sold. Maybe after I see Keller and the offense in action the first two weeks I'll feel better. I'll go with NU 23-20 (3-0)
• Ball State This will be either a bounce-back game after USC, or a possible trap after USC. Either way it'll be closer than people think. NU wins 38-20 (4-0)
• Iowa State Conference opener should be pretty easy win, although Brett Meyer is still around in Ames. NU 41-17 (5-0)
• @ Mizzou Biggest game in Columbia in years... possibly decades. I still think Mizzou will screw things up before the end of the year, but I think they win this game. NU falls to 5-1, Mizzou 38-34 (5-1)
• Okie Lite Second game of the toughest stretch in a long time for the Huskers. OSU has a solid, really spectacular offense. I think Coz has figured out how to stop Bobby Reid, though. Their defense is (shall we say) suspect. I think NU bounces back at home, winning 34-21 (6-1)
• Texas A&M The Aggies have a tremendous running game, and Stephen McGee doesn't make many mistakes. Plus their band is ridiculous. I can't wait to see them in Lincoln again! On the field though, it will be tough. I'll go with NU in a squeaker 28-27. (7-1)
• @ Texas NU just can't beat UT in the regular season. I can't figure it out, but it's not likely. This time they get it done, however. NU "upsets" UT 27-23. (8-1)
• @ KU Watch out! This could be much closer than people expect. They're not as talented, but you have to understand how well Mangino the Hutt can coach. I'll say NU wins, but it's close. 31-27 (9-1)
• K.State First chance to see Josh Freeman in Lincoln - that's if he can pass the physical and complete a pass. Otherwise we might see that Alfred E Neuman look-alike Carson Coffman. Either way this is a blowout. NU 45-17 (10-1)
• @ Colorado Always a struggle. NU could be ahead 24 points half way through the fourth quarter and still have to win in OT (see 1999). I think they'll still get it done, however. NU wins 27-21 (11-1)
• Big 12 title game... I think it will come down to Nebraska and Oklahoma again, this time in San Antonio. NU's quarterback play is better, but OU has better skill position guys. The matchup with OU's WRs and NU's DBs should be much closer than in 2006, due to Bowman being back, Jones a year wiser, Murillo added. Can NU stop their run game, though? I'm not sure... I'm a homer, though, so I go with NU 30-24 (12-1)
• That will put NU in a BCS game, and possibly a matchup with LSU for the title. Let's go with that possibilty. Given how often NU beats SEC schools in bowl games (see Florida, Tennessee, etc.) one would think that NU has a good shot. I'm not so sure. Unfortunately I don't see Sam Keller throwing 5 touchdowns against LSU's 2007 version. LSU wins 31-17.

Now... I'm an optimist. But even I can't really see NU going 12-1 in the regular season. Realistically they could lose to USC, Mizzou, A&M, Okie Lite and Texas. If they lost them all, it would put them at 7-5 on the regular season and into a lower-tier bowl.

I don't expect them to lose all of those 5 games, and I think Callahan will finally get a breakthrough top-10 win against either USC or UT.

Mizzou has to overcome the "Pinkel factor" to win the North title.... can they do that?

I'll go with a 10-2 regular season (losses to USC and A&M) and a Big 12 title over OU. They go to the Orange Bowl 11-2 and lose to Virginia Tech 35-27 and finish 11-3.

USC loses to LSU for the National title.

BOOK IT!

Zack Bowman - to play or not to play?

So Nebraska senior cornerback Zackary Bowman is rumored to be healing with miraculous speed. His ruptured patella tendon in his right knee which followed up the torn ACL in his left knee is supposedly strong enough that he's running and cutting full-speed. This all begs the question, "Do you risk losing Bowman for the conference season by playing him in the out-of-conference games?"

We all know that NU will absolutely need Bowman against USC, and my personal thought is that he needs to play in at least one game before USC to "shake off the rust" of not playing in nearly two years.

Rumors I've heard are that Bowman could see 30-35 plays against Nevada in the season opener, followed by 40-45 on the road against Wake Forest. That would allow him to play almost the full game against USC.

Is that a good plan, however?

Will too much stress on Bowman's knee before he's fully healed cause the knee to break down later in the year?

Does NU need him more in the conference season than against USC?

Which is more important - beating USC in a "program-making" game for Bill Callahan or winning the Big 12 North and playing in the conference title game with a chance to make the BCS?

My personal thought is that although it would be great for national perception to beat USC early in the year, the 2008 recruiting class is nearly complete already. Anything gained from a USC victory would be minimal when compared to a Big 12 title and a BCS game. Who knows? that could possibly net the Huskers another shot at USC in the BCS title game if they can win their other games.

If you hurt Bowman before the conference schedule even starts, the chances of winning the North - let alone the conference - diminish significantly.

I say limit him early to 10-15 against Nevada, 15-20 against Wake, and maybe 30 maximum against USC.

That's my thought anyway.

More Husker recruiting...

Nebraska's commitment list for the 2008 recruiting class continues to grow at an astounding rate. The list is now at 18 members.

As a point of comparison:

• In 2007 that count was only at SIX at the end of July
• In 2006 there were FOUR
• In 2005 there were FIVE

So there are more early commitments in 2008 (18) than in the prior three years combined (15)!

Part of the reason is the trend of recruits taking more unofficial visits and "getting recruiting out of the way" before their senior year begins. I am also convinced that a big reason for the early commitment wave is that the Internet and other instant communications devices (text messaging, instant messaging, etc.) make it easier for recruits to build relationships - nee bonds - with other recruits. The recruiting of other recruits by committed prospects has led to many of NU's 2008 commitments.

Bryce Givens (6-6/257/5.1/OL) and Blaine Gabbert (6-4/226/4.65/QB) were (early on) the most active "recruiters" for NU, with each contributing to the commitments of Sean Fisher (6-5/210/4.6/LB) and Doug Rippy (6-2/218/LB). They also played a part in Trevor Robinson's (6-6/304/5.2/OL) initial commitment, and (I believe) will be instrumental when he recommits to NU.

The real windfall of other recruits' efforts has been realized in the last month, however. The commitments of Rippy, Will Compton (6-2/214/4.5/LB), D.J. Woods (6-0/169/4.35/WR), and Josh Williams (6-2/220/4.8/DE) were all influenced by Gabbert and Givens' work. Rippy was also instrumental in Woods' decision.

Along with those four, three other highly-ranked recruits are all listing NU at or near the top of their lists.

• Kenny Demens (6-1/224/4.6/LB) and Jonas Gray (5-10/232/4.44/RB) of Detroit (Mich.) Country Day both list NU as their No. 1 school right now, and both may be making their choice public within the next week or two.
• D'Anton Lynn (6-1/177/4.48/CB) of Celina (Texas) also has NU on his short list.

All three of those prospects have mentioned the aforementioned "recruiters" in updates on Rivals.com.

• Lynn mentioned Rippy, Woods, and Compton all by name.
• Demens and Gray are old friends themselves, but each has mentioned Gabbert, Rippy, and Compton

Nebraska has 18 (19 if you count Robinson eventually coming back) commitments already, and will not take more than 28 this year. The class is well past half finished. The coaches can now concentrate on keeping the kids they have committed and can actually start working on 2009 kids.

So THIS is what it feels like to be a Texas fan during recruiting season? I like it!

NU Commit #16

Keelan Johnson (6-0/195/4.5) of Mesa (Ariz.) is the 16th verbal commitment for Nebraska in the 2008 recruiting class.

Johnson rushed for 1,100 yards and 20 TDs as a first-team all-region running back in 2006, but will start at free safety in NU's system.

Although he had offers from just NU and Arizona, the Husker staff saw him in person at the Big Red Football School this summer and thought enough of him to make a written offer.

Will Arizona be as productive in 2008 as it was in 2007 for Nebraska? Johnson is the first Grand Canyon State product, but might not be the last. Other possibilities include...

• RB Covaughn Deboskie
• RB Jamal Womble
• TE Dion Jordan
• CB Marc Anthony
• Safety Jarrell Barbour
• Ath Jake Muasau
• Ath Gerrell Robinson

It could be another banner year for the Big Red in Arizona!

The Real 'Ace in the Hole'

Most Nebraska football fans in recent years thought that John Blake was the Huskers' 'ace in the hole' in recruiting. Whenever the staff needed to pull in a highly-ranked recruit, Blake was usually put on the job. However, coach Blake's results were not exactly stellar in the past couple of years.

In fairness, coach Blake was usually recruiting highly-ranked prospects who also had offers from the 'heavyweights' in college football - USC, Oklahoma, Miami, LSU, Florida, etc. Still, his results were lacking.

In 2005 he was truly one of the best recruiters in the country, pulling in players such as 5-star Marlon Lucky, 4-stars Phillip Dillard and Ola Dagunduro, and freshman all-American 3-star Barry Turner among his eight signees.

In 2006 he slipped slightly, bringing in 5-star Andre Jones and three 3-stars who have yet to contribute to the program - one of whom (Steve Allen) did not qualify academically.

In 2007, Blake left NU for North Carolina late in the recruiting year. His recruiting efforts at NU were minimal in that season. He did sign one 5-star and one 4-star defensive tackle for the Tar Heels, however. Very similar to his year-one results in Lincoln.

Compare those results to NU Outside Linebacker Coach & Special Teams Coordinator Bill Busch. Busch gets less credit than Blake did, but his results are similar if not more impressive.

In 2005, Busch was the lead recruiter for 5-star defensive back Zackary Bowman, 4-star lineman Rodney Picou (who has left the program), four additional 3-star prospects and one 2-star guy for a total of 7 signees. Only Bowman (on a limited basis) and former NU kicker Jordan Congdon - a freshman all-American like Turner - have made a significant contribution. NU is still waiting on Nick Covey to be healthy, but Tyrell Spain, Jordan Picou, and Dontrell Moore have given little to nothing to the Huskers. Like Rodney Picou and Congdon, Spain and Moore are gone from the program. Picou's problems and Congdon's decision to transfer are not Busch's fault, however.

2006 has proven to be more productive long-term for Busch, however. He brought in 4-star Rickey Thenarse and 3-stars Major Culbert, Anthony West, and Menelik Holt. West was able to redshirt as a freshman, but Culbert and Thenarse were special teams stars.

• Thenarse has a very good chance to start at safety this fall as a true sophomore.
• Culbert would have been in the running at linebacker, but depth problems necessitated a move to running back during the spring. What will happen this fall is anyone's guess right now. Culbert could redshirt and save eligibility for a move back to defense next year, or he could be in the mix in the offensive backfield. He did look impressive against the No. 1 defense in the Red-White game with limited blocking help.
• Holt is in the mix among the top 6 or 7 receivers.
• West comes off a redshirt season and is expected to compete for time at free safety while maintaining hte ability to play corner also

2007 was another boon for Busch as he signed six players, all from Arizona. Three players were rated 4-stars (CB Armando Murillo, OL Jaivorio Burkes, and DE William Yancy) and three were rated 3-stars (Athletes Prince Amukamara and Eric Hagg and OL Marcel Jones).

• I expect Burkes, Yancy, and Jones to redshirt.
• Amukamara and Hagg could see time on special teams, at cornerback, safety, wide receiver, or running back (Amukamara), but a redshirt would not surprise me with them either. The depth on the NU roster is finally getting back to the point where the Husker staff can consider every freshman a possible redshirt!
• Murillo proved during hte spring that he belongs in the rotation at cornerback with seniors Cortney Grixby, Jones, and Bowman (when he returns from injury). That means that Busch has personally recruited 3 of the top 4 at that position on this year's depth chart.

In 2008, Bill Busch is off and running again. He already had non-binding verbal commitments from JUCO tight end Tyson Hetzer and JUCO linebacker Shaun Mohler.

• Hetzer (6-7/265) was the top tight end on the Husker staff's list after they viewed his entire spring practice tape and saw him in person. He has 4.7-second speed to go with that size, and has also played basketball at the junior college level so he knows how to use his body to position himself for a catch.
• Mohler is simply one of the top 3 JUCO linebackers and one of the top 10 players overall on a national basis. He should be able to provide immediate help at a position where 4 seniors (Bo Ruud, Corey McKeon, Steve Octavian, and Lance Brandenburgh) will graduate in 2007 leaving little experience for 2008.

Busch has also positioned himself well with a number of highly-ranked prospects from the western USA.

• In Arizona alone, 4-star prospects DB Jarrell Barbour (6-3/190/4.4), TE Dion Jordan (6-6/215/4.6) and ATH Gerrell Robinson (6-4/210/4.58) along with 3-star guys ATH Jake Muasau (6-1/210/4.49) and RB Jamal Womble (5-10/216/4.41) and 2-star ATH Keelan Johnson (6-0/195/4.5) all have the Huskers high on their lists.
• Johnson: "...Coach (Bill) Busch and I just talked a couple days ago. We keep in touch and everything through texts."
• Jordan: "Oh yeah, I just got off the phone with coach (Bill) Busch last night. He was just talking about when I'd be able to get up there for an official visit. There's a real good chance that I'll take one there. I've got to sit down with my family and talk about when I'll be heading out on my visits."
• Womble: "Nebraska and South Carolina are the schools recruiting me the hardest. I'm constantly talking to and texting the coaches of those schools and they're showing me the most interest... "With Nebraska, I just like the relationships I've been able to build with their coaches and the past tradition of their program and everything. I've heard great things about it there. I've already scheduled an official visit and I just can't wait to get out there and see it for myself."

Busch is not limiting himself to the Grand Canyon State, however. NU is also very high on the lists of JUCO DE Simi Kuli (6-4/270), 3-star HS DE Cameron Meredith (6-4/222), and JUCO RB Tavares Pressley (6-1/215/4.4). Kuli and Pressley are considered strong leans to NU, and Meredith has the Huskers solidly in his top 5 right now. He has set up a 4-day unofficial trip to Lincoln in mid-August with his mother.

Coach Bill Busch - NU's 'ace in the hole' has things rolling in 2008!