The 2008 class: From Stars to Reaches

There’s a lot of buzz about the early rankings for the 2008 Nebraska recruiting class. Rivals.com currently ranks the Huskers with the No. 7 class nationally. Those rankings are subjective, based on the (somewhat expert) opinions of analysts with many years of experience evaluating prospects. I tend to lend some credence to those rankings, but I lend more weight to what other schools players have scholarship offers from. This can be somewhat inaccurate though, because often a player will commit early in the recruiting process and schools will never get the opportunity to offer a scholarship.

So how is Nebraska really doing in recruiting this year? Here’s my best effort at breaking down the kids already committed based on stars and offers.

Nebraska has two commitments ranked by Rivals.com with five-stars, the highest ranking the recruiting service gives out.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert (6-4/224/4.65) of Ballwin, Mo. won the Elite 11 quarterback camp’s MVP award this past summer. He committed to Nebraska over offers from schools such as Oregon, Tennessee, Alabama, Iowa, and Missouri. It was generally accepted that Gabbert would not leave the Midwest for college, so schools in the SEC and Pac Ten did not recruit him strongly. I think he will be a star in Lincoln.

Offensive lineman Baker Steinkuhler (6-6/290/4.88) of Lincoln Southwest shows only one scholarship offer on his list – Nebraska. That’s because Steinkuhler committed to the Huskers only two days after he received his scholarship offer. He is an NU legacy, with both his father (Dean) and brother (Ty) playing for the Huskers. That legacy, more than anything, kept other schools from “wasting their time” recruiting Steinkuhler. He will play in the NFL someday after a stellar college career. Star

The five-star players are likely to be stars in college and have excellent potential to play in the NFL someday.

Four-star players frequently turn into all-conference players and many go on to play professionally, whether it’s in the NFL, CFL, or Arena League.

NU has four-stars in offensive lineman Bryce Givens (6-6/257/5.1) from Denver, Colo., running back Jonas Gray (5-10/213/4.44) of Detroit, Mich., linebacker Shaun Mohler (6-3/225/4.6) of Orange Coast (Calif.) Community College, linebacker Will Compton (6-2/214/4.5) of Bonne Terre, Mo. and offensive lineman Dan Hoch (6-6/302/5.21) of Harlan, Iowa.

Givens chose NU over Texas, Florida, UCLA, Colorado, Michigan, and Louisville. That is a strong contingent of suitors, which would indicate that he is expected to be a very strong college player. Contributor

Gray, the top player in Michigan according to Rivals, decided on the Huskers over the home-state Wolverines, Florida, Louisville, and Wisconsin among others. When the defending national champion Gators head out of Florida to recruit running backs that’s high praise. Gray should be a good player at NU. Contributor

Mohler, a junior college player ranked among the top 15 players nationally by Rivals.com, chose NU primarily over California and Colorado. JUCO players are easier to project because they have a year or two of higher-level competition out of high school. However, they are recruited based on filling needs. Many of the top programs nationally have great depth coming up at linebacker. Nebraska has a bit of a gap between four seniors graduating this year and the next level of freshmen and sophomores, so Mohler fills a need. Expect him to see the field next year. Contributor

Compton had offers from around the Big Ten and Big Twelve. He picked the Huskers over Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois among others. He also had strong interest from Notre Dame, but no written offer. It would seem that many colleges felt that Compton can play BCS-level football. Contributor

Hoch was the least sought-after player among the four-stars, garnering offers from just Iowa State and Kansas State. Rivals ranks him as the top prospect in Iowa, but it’s widely-acknowledged to be a less-than-stellar year in the Hawkeye State for college-level talent. Hoch committed before his junior year ended, which means that schools couldn’t evaluate his senior year film and offer based on his senior play. Still, he is somewhat of a question mark to me. He may be a contributor, but the level of other schools recruiting him doesn’t elicit excitement from me. I see Hoch as a reach.

Where evaluations get into more of a gray area is when we look at the three-star and two-star prospects. Currently Nebraska has 15 of their 22 commitments at these two levels.

Atop the list is Sean Fisher (6-5/210/4.6) of Millard North. Fisher chose NU over suitors such as Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Arizona State, and Colorado. He had 16 written offers when he committed to Nebraska, and most of them were BCS-level schools. He projects to the college level as an outside linebacker very well. I was told that Oklahoma defensive coordinator Brent Venables was very disappointed to not get Fisher’s pledge. Star

JUCO wide receiver Adrian Hilburn (6-2/190/4.4) of City College of San Francisco picked NU over Tennessee and Texas A&M. There was a time when Tennessee was known as “Wide Receiver University”, so the fact that the Vols went after Hilburn from the other side of the nation is impressive. However, none of the Pac Ten schools recruited him hard so I’m less inclined to declare him a future star. Time will tell on Hilburn. Contributor

Defensive end Cameron Meredith (6-4/222/4.6) of Santa Ana, Calif. was being recruited heavily by schools around the Big Twelve and Pac Ten. He held offers from Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, and others when he pledged to the Huskers. Meredith’s films show that he plays to the whistle on every snap, indicating the type of mentality that should serve him well in college. I expect him to be a star at Nebraska.

Running back Collins Okafor (6-1/210/4.54) of Omaha Westside received his Nebraska offer in early October of 2006 and committed late that month. Despite leading Class A in rushing as a junior, Okafor had no additional offers. Did NU find diamond that no one else noticed? Time will tell, but the level of recruitment Okafor received sets off some alarms for me. Reach

Port Arthur, Texas defensive back David Whitmore (6-2/190/4.5) made his pledge to Nebraska before his junior year ended, picking the Huskers over Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Kansas State. He has not yet visited Lincoln, and is still considered somewhat of a soft commitment by recruiting gurus. His play in the Texas 7-on-7 State Championship this past summer moved him up in many analysts’ eyes. With his height and speed, Whitmore should be a very good college player. Contributor

Josh Williams (6-4/220/4.8) is a defensive end from Denton, Texas. Williams had a long list of offers, but only a few from upper-level BCS schools. Missouri, Arkansas, Arizona, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State were among his most recognizable suitors. Williams is still growing, and his early-season play has been spectacular in Texas’ biggest class. He recorded four sacks in the first game alone. I think Williams will be a solid contributor at NU, but whether he’s a star is dependent upon him putting on weight.

Wide receiver D.J. Woods (6-0/169/4.35) of Strongsville, Ohio is a great example of an underrated player by recruiting services. Despite being a mid-level three-star recruit according to Rivals, Woods held offers from Ohio State, Penn State, West Virginia, Auburn, and Iowa before choosing Nebraska. Many big-time programs believe Woods will be successful in Division I. Who am I to disagree? Star

Marrero, La. defensive end Eric Harper (6-4/220/4.62) picked NU over Texas A&M and Mississippi State. His other written offers came from smaller schools, primarily because he was lost in the shuffle after Hurricane Katrina. Harper will graduate in December and be in Lincoln for spring practice. I expect him to contribute as a redshirt freshman or true sophomore, and be a strong player for many years in Lincoln.

Tight end Tyson Hetzer (6-7/265/4.75) of Citrus Community College in California had only an offer from Nebraska, and it was based on practice film only. Hetzer played JUCO basketball in 2006. NFL players like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates converted basketball backgrounds into football stardom. Can Hetzer do the same? With only the Nebraska offer, it would seem that other schools don’t think so. He could be a reach.

Overland Park, Kan. athlete Kyler Reed (6-3/204/4.5) picked NU over Colorado and Missouri and many lower-level Big Twelve schools such as Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State. His suitors are mid-level at best, which would seem to translate to solid but not spectacular contributions in college.

Linebacker Doug Rippy (6-2/218) of Trotwood, Ohio had offers from Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan State and some lower-level Division I programs. His senior year is only his second year of high school football, and first-hand reports of his play have been very positive. The offers don’t translate into college stardom, but he’s still learning the game. I think he’s a future contributor in Lincoln.

Ricky Henry (6-4/300/5.2) picked NU over Colorado and Houston. The center from North Dakota College of Science must do some work academically to make it to Lincoln before spring practice. If he can do that, he will be given an opportunity to replace Brett Byford next fall. Personally I don't think he will make it to Lincoln. Reach

Wichita, Kan. defensive tackle Darius Parish (6-3/325/5.08) has stunning athleticism for his size, yet only received scholarship offers from Kansas and Colorado State along with NU. He didn’t receive offers, but he had strong interest from Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Missouri as well. Parish can be a space-eater on the defensive line for NU for many years, and I would not be surprised to see him playing as a true freshman. Star

Two-star safety Keelan Johnson (6-0/195/4.5) of Mesa, Ariz. picked NU over the home-state Arizona Wildcats. He also had interest from Nevada, Oregon and Arizona State despite being “only” a two-star prospect. He arrived at NU’s summer camp without an offer, but two days after leaving Lincoln the Husker coaches tendered and one month later he accepted. After a couple of years to get faster and stronger, Johnson should contribute in NU’s defensive backfield.

John Levorson (6-4/185/4.55) of Crete chose NU over Wyoming and Ohio. Those offers don’t translate to Division I stardom, but NU offered him only after his performance at their summer camp. They’ve seen what he can do in person, and they believe he can contribute. That’s good enough for me.

The final tally shows more stars and contributors than reaches in this class.

Future Stars: 8
4-stars – 2
3-stars – 2
2-stars – 4

Future Contributors: 10
4-stars – 2
3-stars – 6
2-stars – 2

Reaches: 4
4-stars – 1
3-stars – 3

pre-season predictions

It's that time of year - FOOTBALL SEASON!! Every pre-season magazine has been on the newsstands for a couple of months now, and ESPN and Fox Sports have been hammering us with their opinions. I guess it's time to add mine...

Let's talk about BCS conference predictions first. I'll pick the following schools to win their respective league championships:

• ACC Va Tech over Florida State
• Big 10(11) Wisconsin - Michigan will find a way to screw it up - they always do.
• Big East West Virginia - Louisville w/o Petrino can't hang, and neither can Rutgers.
• Pac 10 USC should run away. Only Cal can really challenge them.
• SEC LSU over Florida - I'm not sold on the Gators getting here, but who else? Georgia is too young, Tennessee is like Michigan (talented but poorly coached) and who knows if South Carolina will step up this year?

Before we discuss the Big 12, let's look at Nebraska's schedule and my predictions for their season.

• Nevada This is a good team that played Miami close in a bowl last December. They've lost some really good players to pre-season injury and suspension, however. I'll say NU 38-17 (1-0)
• @ Wake Not quite the same team that won the ACC last year. They won't sneak up on anyone, and they didn't blow out anyone last year anyway. NU wins a close road game in front of a stadium at least 30% filled with NU fans 31-23 (2-0)
• USC This defense is ridiculously fast and talented, and John David Booty can sling it with the best in the nation. The RBs and WRs are the question, and NU will have two games under their belts. Still... I don't know... I guess I'll go with the homer pick, but I'm not sold. Maybe after I see Keller and the offense in action the first two weeks I'll feel better. I'll go with NU 23-20 (3-0)
• Ball State This will be either a bounce-back game after USC, or a possible trap after USC. Either way it'll be closer than people think. NU wins 38-20 (4-0)
• Iowa State Conference opener should be pretty easy win, although Brett Meyer is still around in Ames. NU 41-17 (5-0)
• @ Mizzou Biggest game in Columbia in years... possibly decades. I still think Mizzou will screw things up before the end of the year, but I think they win this game. NU falls to 5-1, Mizzou 38-34 (5-1)
• Okie Lite Second game of the toughest stretch in a long time for the Huskers. OSU has a solid, really spectacular offense. I think Coz has figured out how to stop Bobby Reid, though. Their defense is (shall we say) suspect. I think NU bounces back at home, winning 34-21 (6-1)
• Texas A&M The Aggies have a tremendous running game, and Stephen McGee doesn't make many mistakes. Plus their band is ridiculous. I can't wait to see them in Lincoln again! On the field though, it will be tough. I'll go with NU in a squeaker 28-27. (7-1)
• @ Texas NU just can't beat UT in the regular season. I can't figure it out, but it's not likely. This time they get it done, however. NU "upsets" UT 27-23. (8-1)
• @ KU Watch out! This could be much closer than people expect. They're not as talented, but you have to understand how well Mangino the Hutt can coach. I'll say NU wins, but it's close. 31-27 (9-1)
• K.State First chance to see Josh Freeman in Lincoln - that's if he can pass the physical and complete a pass. Otherwise we might see that Alfred E Neuman look-alike Carson Coffman. Either way this is a blowout. NU 45-17 (10-1)
• @ Colorado Always a struggle. NU could be ahead 24 points half way through the fourth quarter and still have to win in OT (see 1999). I think they'll still get it done, however. NU wins 27-21 (11-1)
• Big 12 title game... I think it will come down to Nebraska and Oklahoma again, this time in San Antonio. NU's quarterback play is better, but OU has better skill position guys. The matchup with OU's WRs and NU's DBs should be much closer than in 2006, due to Bowman being back, Jones a year wiser, Murillo added. Can NU stop their run game, though? I'm not sure... I'm a homer, though, so I go with NU 30-24 (12-1)
• That will put NU in a BCS game, and possibly a matchup with LSU for the title. Let's go with that possibilty. Given how often NU beats SEC schools in bowl games (see Florida, Tennessee, etc.) one would think that NU has a good shot. I'm not so sure. Unfortunately I don't see Sam Keller throwing 5 touchdowns against LSU's 2007 version. LSU wins 31-17.

Now... I'm an optimist. But even I can't really see NU going 12-1 in the regular season. Realistically they could lose to USC, Mizzou, A&M, Okie Lite and Texas. If they lost them all, it would put them at 7-5 on the regular season and into a lower-tier bowl.

I don't expect them to lose all of those 5 games, and I think Callahan will finally get a breakthrough top-10 win against either USC or UT.

Mizzou has to overcome the "Pinkel factor" to win the North title.... can they do that?

I'll go with a 10-2 regular season (losses to USC and A&M) and a Big 12 title over OU. They go to the Orange Bowl 11-2 and lose to Virginia Tech 35-27 and finish 11-3.

USC loses to LSU for the National title.

BOOK IT!

Zack Bowman - to play or not to play?

So Nebraska senior cornerback Zackary Bowman is rumored to be healing with miraculous speed. His ruptured patella tendon in his right knee which followed up the torn ACL in his left knee is supposedly strong enough that he's running and cutting full-speed. This all begs the question, "Do you risk losing Bowman for the conference season by playing him in the out-of-conference games?"

We all know that NU will absolutely need Bowman against USC, and my personal thought is that he needs to play in at least one game before USC to "shake off the rust" of not playing in nearly two years.

Rumors I've heard are that Bowman could see 30-35 plays against Nevada in the season opener, followed by 40-45 on the road against Wake Forest. That would allow him to play almost the full game against USC.

Is that a good plan, however?

Will too much stress on Bowman's knee before he's fully healed cause the knee to break down later in the year?

Does NU need him more in the conference season than against USC?

Which is more important - beating USC in a "program-making" game for Bill Callahan or winning the Big 12 North and playing in the conference title game with a chance to make the BCS?

My personal thought is that although it would be great for national perception to beat USC early in the year, the 2008 recruiting class is nearly complete already. Anything gained from a USC victory would be minimal when compared to a Big 12 title and a BCS game. Who knows? that could possibly net the Huskers another shot at USC in the BCS title game if they can win their other games.

If you hurt Bowman before the conference schedule even starts, the chances of winning the North - let alone the conference - diminish significantly.

I say limit him early to 10-15 against Nevada, 15-20 against Wake, and maybe 30 maximum against USC.

That's my thought anyway.

More Husker recruiting...

Nebraska's commitment list for the 2008 recruiting class continues to grow at an astounding rate. The list is now at 18 members.

As a point of comparison:

• In 2007 that count was only at SIX at the end of July
• In 2006 there were FOUR
• In 2005 there were FIVE

So there are more early commitments in 2008 (18) than in the prior three years combined (15)!

Part of the reason is the trend of recruits taking more unofficial visits and "getting recruiting out of the way" before their senior year begins. I am also convinced that a big reason for the early commitment wave is that the Internet and other instant communications devices (text messaging, instant messaging, etc.) make it easier for recruits to build relationships - nee bonds - with other recruits. The recruiting of other recruits by committed prospects has led to many of NU's 2008 commitments.

Bryce Givens (6-6/257/5.1/OL) and Blaine Gabbert (6-4/226/4.65/QB) were (early on) the most active "recruiters" for NU, with each contributing to the commitments of Sean Fisher (6-5/210/4.6/LB) and Doug Rippy (6-2/218/LB). They also played a part in Trevor Robinson's (6-6/304/5.2/OL) initial commitment, and (I believe) will be instrumental when he recommits to NU.

The real windfall of other recruits' efforts has been realized in the last month, however. The commitments of Rippy, Will Compton (6-2/214/4.5/LB), D.J. Woods (6-0/169/4.35/WR), and Josh Williams (6-2/220/4.8/DE) were all influenced by Gabbert and Givens' work. Rippy was also instrumental in Woods' decision.

Along with those four, three other highly-ranked recruits are all listing NU at or near the top of their lists.

• Kenny Demens (6-1/224/4.6/LB) and Jonas Gray (5-10/232/4.44/RB) of Detroit (Mich.) Country Day both list NU as their No. 1 school right now, and both may be making their choice public within the next week or two.
• D'Anton Lynn (6-1/177/4.48/CB) of Celina (Texas) also has NU on his short list.

All three of those prospects have mentioned the aforementioned "recruiters" in updates on Rivals.com.

• Lynn mentioned Rippy, Woods, and Compton all by name.
• Demens and Gray are old friends themselves, but each has mentioned Gabbert, Rippy, and Compton

Nebraska has 18 (19 if you count Robinson eventually coming back) commitments already, and will not take more than 28 this year. The class is well past half finished. The coaches can now concentrate on keeping the kids they have committed and can actually start working on 2009 kids.

So THIS is what it feels like to be a Texas fan during recruiting season? I like it!

NU Commit #16

Keelan Johnson (6-0/195/4.5) of Mesa (Ariz.) is the 16th verbal commitment for Nebraska in the 2008 recruiting class.

Johnson rushed for 1,100 yards and 20 TDs as a first-team all-region running back in 2006, but will start at free safety in NU's system.

Although he had offers from just NU and Arizona, the Husker staff saw him in person at the Big Red Football School this summer and thought enough of him to make a written offer.

Will Arizona be as productive in 2008 as it was in 2007 for Nebraska? Johnson is the first Grand Canyon State product, but might not be the last. Other possibilities include...

• RB Covaughn Deboskie
• RB Jamal Womble
• TE Dion Jordan
• CB Marc Anthony
• Safety Jarrell Barbour
• Ath Jake Muasau
• Ath Gerrell Robinson

It could be another banner year for the Big Red in Arizona!